‘Australians should be starting to get worried. Greed has turned to fear on global stock markets and that great ripping noise you hear is fortunes being shredded.’
Economist Jason Murphy quoted by news.com.au
‘Based on the premise of “for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction” — then the next crisis is going to bigger than most people can possibly imagine...’
Don’t sell, don’t buy, don’t DO ANYTHING until you’ve read this essential market crash survival handbook...
Do you hear that, reader?
It’s the sound of smart money fleeing towards the exits…
Finally, you are starting to see cracks in this almost decade-long bull market.
You shouldn’t panic.
But you shouldn’t listen to the mainstream press either.
As you’ll see below, conventional financial media have historically done a woeful job of accurately reporting previous financial crashes while they’re in motion.
What you need to do is stay calm…level-headed…and aligned to a plan…
The plan I’m going to introduce you to below has FIVE STEPS.
All five steps are outlined in THE END of AUSTRALIA: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It.
It’s not available in any shop or online.
But, for a STRICTLY LIMITED TIME, we’re making it available for download.
I hope you do.
Because if recent stock market plunges here and around the world are, indeed, the first murmurings of something far, FAR bigger…you’ll want these five measures already in place…
The US Stock market lost nearly $2 trillion in October 2018.
Australian stocks have taken an even bigger proportional hit over a longer period, as you can see here…
These are not run-of-the-mill falls. These are big.
Are they certain signs that a major, historic financial crash is imminent?
No. Things could well calm down again.
Are they signs that fear is back? And that the greed and euphoria that has driven the market for so many years has vanished?
And, because of that, you need to read the following report very carefully.
The Aussie market gains from March 2015 have been devastated in the space of a couple of months.
The All Ords is now at a level it first breached in early 2007.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Meaning an average portfolio on shares has gone pretty much nowhere in 12 years.
The real issue at hand though is: how much lower could shares go?
Is this about to morph into a crash that will be etched into the history books?
A crash that could cause recessions or even Great Depressions?
I don’t claim to know that for certain.
But I’m more convinced of this than I have been of anything in my 30-year career as a financial advisor and analyst…Something big has started…and I believe we’ll find out what that something is in 2019.
If, as has happened with previous bubble busting episodes, the All Ords goes back to where the bull market started back in 2009 — that will be around the 3,000-point level.
Should the pattern be repeated, then our market will be back to a level first breached in 2000.
Nearly two decades of gains gone…vaporised into the ether.
As is customary when the market looks shaky, we’re told to ‘stay calm, this is only a correction and normal trading conditions will resume shortly’.
The narrative around why the market is falling and why it will once again rise is oh so predictable.
The market is going down because…‘fears over the trade war’; ‘rising interest rates in the US’; ‘doubts over the strength of China’s economy’; ‘the Saudi involvement in the killing of Jamal Khashoggi’; ‘the solvency of Italian banks’.
The REAL reason the market is going down and will go down much, much further is that it is…over, over, overvalued.
Simple as that.
Here’s something you REALLY need to understand…
When it comes to American stocks, this is THE MOST EXPENSIVE market in history.
The good times have been had, now it’s time for the not-so-good times…deflating this bubble.
The US market is a disaster waiting to happen. And what actually triggers its downfall is largely immaterial.
Plenty of reasons will be given, but they matter for nought. The Fed — with its targeted/idiotic/irresponsible policies — have blown an asset bubble that’s without peer.
I believe what we’re seeing now is the blowback from those policies.
And it’s only just begun…
I’m writing to you today to do my level-best to ensure you’re prepared for something few people are contemplating.
A financial crack-up of GREATER magnitude than the Global Financial Crisis.
If you’re perturbed about how quickly people rushed for the exits in the recent panic…
If, like me, you know a market cannot go steeper, steeper and almost vertical for years on end without some kind of ‘reversion to the mean’…
And if you’re deeply sceptical of the government’s ability to protect you from what’s about to happen…
…then read on and read carefully.
What you’re about to learn could save your financial life.
Anne Richards, chief executive of M&G Investments, said that right before the first panic this year, one that shaved an eye-watering 1,100 points off the Dow in January.
Richards was pointing out that central banks have very little ammunition left to fight the next crisis.
Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
That 1,100 didn’t turn into an all-out global crash.
It accounted to a drop of roughly 5%.
The recent panic has been 9%. It’s bigger.
But it’s still not ‘The Big One’. Not so far.
In October 1929, the Dow plunged 13%, then 12% in two consecutive trading sessions.
The record to date is Dow falling 20% in a single session in October 1987.
That was an all-out crash.
But as you’ll see if you read on, we will be getting off lightly if that’s all the ASX loses when the next Big One hits…
Putting aside the stock market for a moment, let’s look at the state of Australia’s finances.
We’ve had a record recession-free run. We have improving GDP growth. We have low unemployment.
At least that’s the ‘OFFICIAL’ spin…
It paints a picture of an economy enjoying relatively good health. But the reality is quite the opposite.
We’re bloated with debt.
That’s the truth behind our economic ‘successes’.
In mortgaging our future to the hilt, we’ve made the numbers look good today.
Our booming economy is nothing more than a reflection of our willingness — through ignorance or stupidity — to borrow our way to prosperity.
Debt is a means of having today what we would otherwise have saved for tomorrow.
Debt drags future consumption into the present day. And boy, as a nation, we’ve brought years of expenditure forward.
This writing has been on the wall for years but, as usual, nobody wants to ruin a good story. Least of all mainstream media.
It’s going to take an external event to tip things over.
And we may be witnessing the beginnings of just such an event.
You can sense it, can’t you?
Australian house prices, finally, are in decline.
Shares here and the world over have reversed sharply.
It’s my contention that these are the early signs of much worse to come.
Asset markets are destined for a faceplant.
When I started out on my book, The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It, I thought the timeframe might be 5–10 years for the truth to be revealed.
Now I think it’s going to be more like 2–3 years. Expect events to unfold quite quickly.
My advice is to reject the lies, embrace the truth and take action to protect your financial position.
Those who’ve been around long enough know the current situation is highly unstable and is destined to end very badly.
In your heart, chances are you know it, too.
But the question is:
What can ‘they’ do to prevent it?
The answer is, nothing.
The damage has been done. Debts have been accrued. Markets are at stratospheric levels. Expectations have been raised.
There is no easy way down from this artificially created peak.
In the book Why Stock Markets Crash: Critical Events in Complex Financial Systems, Didier Sornette explains:
‘The collapse is fundamentally due to the unstable position; the instantaneous cause of the collapse is secondary.’
Everyone is looking for the ‘snowflake’ that’ll cause the avalanche.
Will it be the America/China trade war?
Is it going to be a sovereign or corporate debt default?
You can stop your looking and second guessing. The cause is secondary.
Markets crash because they are fundamentally unstable.
Even if stocks rally again from this correction, it’s time to ask:
How much higher could stocks go before the next Big One?
How far could they fall by the time it’s over?
Are we talking Larry Fink’s estimate of just a 10% drop?
Are we talking October 2007, when the ASX lost nearly 50% over 14 months?
Or Black Tuesday, 1929, when the Dow went on to lose 86% of its value between 1929 and 1936?
What could happen to the Australian economy during the next big crash?
And what could all this mean for your retirement savings, your age pension, your lifestyle, and your children’s future?
I attempt to answer these questions in my book, The End of Australia.
(It’s yours to download immediately. All we ask for in return is $4.95 today to cover some of the productions costs).
I really think you should read this book immediately.
Why the big hurry?
Well, as I keep hammering home, it’s all about DEBT.
Everything — and I mean everything — is dependent upon new debt entering the system.
That’s an interconnectivity linking plumbers and plastic surgeons; baristas and bankers; hairdressers and hospitals.
A prolonged period of expansion or contraction in growth affects the entire economic food chain…some parts more than others.
Debt — especially since 2008/09 — has been instrumental in asset price growth.
To erase any doubts over whether this is true or not, you only need to ask, ‘Would property prices or share values have, over the past decade, risen as high if interest rates had been 7%?’
Of course they wouldn’t have!
That’s why rising interest rates in the United States have spooked global markets.
People are finally realizing we’ve been living and investing in a Ponzi scheme…albeit on the grandest of scales.
And everything is contingent upon the continued expansion of debt.
Entitlement funding. Asset prices. Employment levels. Business solvency. Social cohesion. Political stability.
What we do know from two very reliable sources — history and mathematics — is this:
The only variable is that some take longer than others to meet their pre-determined fate.
What happens when the base starts to crumble?
That, reader, is something I think we’re going to find out in 2019.
The problem now is there is simply too much debt in the system already.
That outcome is crystal clear…just like it was in 2007.
It’s now a question of when, not if, the next credit crisis hits.
Where it does get murky is when you try to see what the response to the next credit crisis could be.
Negative rates? Maybe. But what if people do not have the capacity to borrow? How do capital-depleted retirees generate even a modest income?
How long do you keep rates negative? five, 10, 15 years?
Print money? Probably. But how much?
The last effort was US$14 trillion. Will it take double or triple or an even higher multiple of that amount next time?
Peoples’ QE? Depositing money directly into peoples’ bank accounts? Most definitely.
But for how long? Will this be a temporary or permanent arrangement? If it’s temporary, how do you wean people off free money?
When you start looking at some of the truly bizarre ‘remedies’ that might apply next time, you begin to appreciate just how broken the system has become.
The lens I look at the coming crisis through in The End of Australia is one used by very few people.
The vast majority are looking through a rose-coloured lens.
They somehow remain oblivious to how fragile — due to the total and utter reliance on debt — the system really is.
Because when the Ponzi scheme collapses (and we really might be seeing the start of that now), you could have your life turned upside down.
Due to the interconnectivity within the system, that upheaval will work its way up the food chain.
The Fed managed to ‘steady the ship’ in 2007.
This time, I just think that won’t be possible.
As I explain in my book, a historic correction of between 40% and 90% is a high probability outcome.
We are talking about a potential crash that could be far deeper and longer-lasting than the two previous downturns.
The epicentre for those two downturns were tech stocks and property — with the broad market caught in the crossfire.
For ten years central bankers successfully pumped money into the stock markets.
All Bernanke and Yellen had to do was promise more printed dollars and give a little forward guidance on interest rates.
It’s been nearly a decade of ‘wink, wink, nudge, nudge’ on how much they intended to prop up stock markets.
Wall Street loved this rigged game. Secure in the knowledge the all-powerful Fed had their back, the boys and girls running the biggest casino in the world knew they could not lose.
The ‘house’ was on a sure thing.
All those trillions in newly minted currencies — dollars, euros, pounds, yen, yuan — flooded into markets.
Any time the markets stumbled, an even greater stimulus package was announced.
So now, unlike the last two downturns, the stock market ITSELF is actually the ‘eye of the storm’.
Mark my words:
For nearly three decades, I have helped Australians build and protect wealth. Boomers like me. Self-made businesspeople. Private investors; some high net-worth individuals.
Over that time I witnessed three booms and busts:
In each case the media was telling them everything was fantastic. Right up until the day of the crash.
In each case I witnessed first-hand people being led to the slaughter by financial planners they trusted.
But the next crash, I believe, is going to be on a far larger scale.
And those last three crashes were pretty brutal in themselves.
On each occasion the end result was losses in excess of 50%. Delivered to many who never saw it coming. Or refused to acknowledge the possibility.
The cycle repeats over and over again. Expensive markets become cheaper.
Based on fundamentals, this is the most expensive market in history…hardly the investment conditions for long-term growth.
This is why a growing number of ‘experts’ — many who are usually permanently optimistic — are coming out every day and openly stating their concern.
When this market does explode, I believe investors are going to see decades of gains blown away in a very short space of time.
If you cannot afford to see your wealth shrink by possibly two-thirds in value, you need to prepare for that potential snap NOW.
The five protection steps I outline in my book will be of no use to you when this avalanche is underway.
Please take the time to ask yourself the relevant ‘what if’ questions.
If the market falls 50% or 60%, will my retirement be ok?
What if I lose my job, do I have sufficient cash reserves in place?
What if property values fall more than expected, do I have enough equity to avoid bank foreclosure?
Will the banks themselves — and the money I have deposited in them — be safe?
What if the Government cuts back on entitlements, how will I make ends meet?
My book aims to help you work through these questions.
And it gives you a simple-to-follow plan.
What I think is coming to our shores in the next months and years is not going to be pretty.
Perhaps this is paranoia.
However, wouldn’t it be prudent to at least read my thesis and decide for yourself? And, if you agree with it, to take the necessary steps to protect your financial position?
Those steps are outlined in my book, which is at the printers as you read this.
‘This is the sort of financial crisis that no one wants to think about…especially the people who are responsible for it. Vern is one of the few pointing up and shouting “watch out”! He is one of the few who dare to notice and dare to say anything.’
New York Times bestselling author Bill Bonner
As I said, it’s called The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It.
I have no interest in making any money from this book.
I’m doing this because the mainstream media and financial industries are failing to adequately warn you of what I believe is coming.
As my book shows, Australia’s weakened position means that, when the next big one takes place, it could hit us like a sledgehammer.
I fear that most Australians are completely unaware of the unsustainable pressures building in our economy.
Now is a time to be cautious. And have a plan…
All you have to do is cover $4.95 today towards production costs, and agree to take out a 30-day trial subscription to my investment advisory, The Gowdie Letter.
Here is a brief synopsis of what you’ll learn in The End of Australia…
The first part of The End of Australia explores what could happen.
Based on the data we have, the outcome of this financially-irresponsible experiment by a handful of central banker PhDs has been determined in advance.
The outcome, in my view, is that the system will collapse.
It’s been a decade since Bear Stearns was rescued by JP Morgan Chase.
Do you think the events of March 2008 marked the beginning of the end for a period of excess and greed?
The debt crisis of 2008/09 should have been heeded as a sign to correct the errors of the past.
Less debt accumulation. More savings. Rethink our obsession with growth.
This was the opportunity to step back, reassess and put the global economy on sounder footings.
But there were too many powerful vested interests for the greater good to ever prevail.
Politicians. Wall Street. Central Bankers. IMF (International Monetary Fund). Highly indebted businesses and households.
They all needed growth, no matter what it would take.
The extraordinary efforts of the world’s central bankers are well chronicled.
The ‘success’ of their Zimbabwean-like policies is evident all around us.
The Dow Jones index on a knife-edge.
Cash-burning tech companies valued in the billions of dollars.
Major city property prices falling.
The ballooning net worth of billionaires.
All these warning signs have been muffled by the noise of a ‘booming’ US economy — employment growth, rising inflation, soaring shares (until recently) — has drowned out the issue that the ‘End’ is coming,
However, judging by recent headlines, we are approaching the point where we (as a society) have to live with the consequences of our actions.
This headline is from The Guardian on 3 October 2018:
Source: The Guardian
The damage inflicted upon the economy can no longer be ignored…not even by those who championed the continuation (and abuse) of such high levels of debt.
But the IMF warning still leaves open the chance of avoiding the consequences of our actions…
‘The world economy is at risk of…’. ‘The risk remains…’
These words offer hope where there is none.
There’s simply too much debt toxin in the system for it to be classified as ‘a risk’ — the outcome is a known.
What we don’t know is when…
In my view, the time for preventing the second Great Depression has long passed.
The window for prevention closed when the central bankers — encouraged by the IMF — opted to cure a debt crisis with more debt.
No amount of pleading or promises of debt abstinence will change this outcome.
It’s too late to save a system that’s been seriously compromised by prolonged and excessive use of debt to achieve growth.
The looming challenge is not avoiding, but surviving the next Great Depression.
So how do you protect yourself from a coming ‘snap’?
As far as taking care of your money — to make sure you don’t lose money, and even use this situation to come out quite a bit ahead — well, that’s where my book could help you.
And that’s the REAL reason you should arrange right now to download your copy.
All of the moves you’ll find in The End of Australia are fairly straightforward to implement — at least right now. If you wait to do these things, however, they will almost certainly get very expensive, more difficult, and even impossible to do as we get deeper into the Long Bust.
These strategies are based on years of research and analysis, studying the markets and how they move in boom and bust conditions.
If you do these things now, not only will you be better prepared to weather the coming storm…you could lock in massive rebound-gains, if you pick the right assets at the right time.
Here’s a sample of the practical steps you’ll discover in The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It...
STEP #1: FIRST, BUILD A LONG BUST ‘STORM SHELTER’
Let’s say you have a pretty decent idea that a cyclone is coming.
As it gets nearer, you watch the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) site to keep informed on the intensity and its likely trajectory.
The primary questions are: Where will it hit? And how bad is it likely to be?
During this phase, you should take precautions — buying food, water, petrol (for the generator and chainsaw), batteries etc. Secure the house — tape windows, remove any potential projectiles.
But not all people take these precautions.
There can be a fair degree of complacency in the community…especially by those who have never lived through a cyclone.
Right now, the government and the financial sector are not sounding the alarm.
Markets that are threatening to unleash the financial equivalent of a category 5 cyclone.
So one of the first practical steps you’ll discover in The End of Australia relates to adopting a ‘stay indoors’ investment portfolio.
It’s a certain asset allocation that is custom-designed to weather the coming downturn, which I label in my book the ‘Long Bust’, while it plays out.
This cannot end well. Imbalances must be corrected.
So what should you do?
If you own Australian shares, how much should you be scaling back? And which specific shares are most at risk?
How much should you have in cash and fixed-interest investments?
What about superannuation? How will a big crash impact that? And how do you best protect your retirement savings?
Are the gold bugs right when they say the yellow metal will be your saviour in the next crisis? (My research on this will probably surprise you…)
What about listed property trusts? And are emerging and frontier markets a safe-haven as the Long Bust plays out?
I’ve attempted to answer all of these questions for you in The End of Australia.
You will get the specific asset allocation model I’m adopting with my own family money right now.
Make no mistake: This allocation is about SAFETY FIRST.
Destruction of capital on an unprecedented scale is about to occur.
But not to ME.
And potentially, not to YOU either.
The next crisis could result in another massive rush for liquidity. This asset mix is designed to protect you from this panic.
But before you think we’re getting too negative, keep this in mind…
All busts lead to once-in-a-lifetime wealth-creation opportunities for those astute and brave enough to pick them at the right time.
Here’s an example…
Right after the GFC, people started worrying that consumers would no longer be happy to pay $4 for a Starbucks coffee. And that the ‘fancy coffee revolution’ was just a fad from the roaring noughties.
Starbucks got panic-sold big time in 2008, right down to $8 a share.
Today it trades at around $58.
Each crash has a different dynamic. Different assets and stocks will fall harder…and turn into greater bargains…for various reasons.
As painful and scary as these once-in-a-blue-moon market events can be…they could also hand you future wealth on a silver platter.
But you must be ready. And have your plan prepared in advance.
For that reason, my pre-planned strategy is to gradually shift to taking advantage of the most heavily-discounted assets on the post-crash market.
The End of Australia will show YOU how to do this…and which specific assets to target, as well.
But we’re getting ahead of ourselves. Before that:
STEP #2: PROTECT YOUR CASH!
When the Long Bust kicks off, cash will be the most in-demand asset around.
During the 2008/09 GFC, every asset class except cash suffered losses…even gold.
When investors scramble for liquidity, everything is up for sale.
The trigger for the next Great Depression could come from any number of flashpoints around the world — Italian banks, Turkey sovereign default, US junk bonds — to name a few. Likely it will be some kind of ‘unknown unknown’ that comes out of leftfield.
As I say, the trigger is beside the point.
When it finally happens, you could see a ‘flight to cash’ the likes of which has never happened in your lifetime.
The loss of wealth — on a global scale — will be in the tens of trillions of dollars.
Cash in the hand will be king above all else.
But when it comes to cash, there are two crucial questions you need to ask.
How safe is your cash in the bank?
And in a low interest rate environment, where is the best place to invest your cash?
I’ve attempted to answer both those questions in full in The End of Australia.
Think about this for a second…
If our banks are ‘bulletproof’, why has the government limited its bank deposit guarantee to only $250,000 per institution?
Surely a blanket guarantee would be in order if there was nothing to fear.
As David Murray points out, a crisis may have:
‘…a low probability of occurrence, but the problem with that view is that whatever the probability, the severity can be very high if it occurs’.
There is a probability — albeit a low one — that the interconnectivity in the system could mean Australian bank failures.
The one question I am asked most by readers is: How do I protect my cash if this happens?
The End of Australia explains how you can do this.
What you’ll learn may shock you.
Did you know the dangerous misconception about the $250,000 deposit guarantee?
Many investors assume they are diversifying their risk by spreading $1 million evenly between Westpac, St George Bank, BankSA, and Bank of Melbourne.
If you’re doing that, you’re in for a nasty surprise…
Under existing legislation, all four banks are seen as a single ‘ADI’ (Authorised Deposit-taking Institutes).
This means only $250,000 of the $1 million would be guaranteed.
Also, did you know that the cash in your superannuation account is almost certainly not covered by this guarantee?
So if your super fund goes down, you’re at risk of even losing your most secure investment: Cash.
Here are the facts:
It really is that straightforward.
Irrespective of whether you think the super funds are better risks than the banks, the fact is the government’s guarantee only applies to the institutions on the APRA list.
There is not one superannuation fund on that list.
It’s VITAL that if a giant new international financial crisis occurs, your cash is adequately protected IN ADVANCE.
My book will show you:
The best case scenario is the Australian banking system is robust enough to handle the coming shock — one that could be greater than the GFC.
The worst case is…it ISN’T.
My book shows you some precautions to take right now so you no longer have to worry about the worst case scenario.
When the time comes, those at the top will have their ‘parachute’ strategy in place. THEY will have taken the necessary precautions to protect their wealth while the masses (as usual) suffer the horrific financial consequences.
And if the market does collapse, the industry, true to form, will trot out all the usual excuses that ‘no one saw it coming’.
By then though, the damage will be done. The average person’s portfolio will be decimated.
Their retirements ruined.
I’ve written The End of Australia so you can see what’s coming.
And THEN beat the herd into once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities at deeply-discounted levels. We’ll get to that in just a second…
But first, there’s one more wealth-protection measure you should consider very seriously…
STEP #3: DON’T PUT YOUR FAITH IN THESE TWO ‘FALSE SAFE HAVENS’
It may surprise you that gold does not figure into my End of Australia protection strategy.
When the next crisis kicks off, there will be a massive rush for liquidity.
Most gold bugs don’t realise that the yellow metal — the traditional safe-haven in times of turmoil — may not be as safe as many assume.
In fact, it could very likely get caught up in the panic-selling. Gold is a highly-tradeable asset and, in the frenzy for cash, it will be on the auction block along with quality stocks and property.
The gold price peaked in September 2011 at US$1,920 per ounce.
Since then it has fallen (in US dollar terms) over 30% in value.
The seven-year slide has caused gold to lose its ‘charisma’. It’s no longer the hot and popular investment.
You saw gold shoot up a bit right as stock markets sold off recently.
That may happen again…for a few days…when the Big One starts.
But be warned: Eventually gold will be caught up in the panic selling, too.
Other false safe-havens will be quality, bluest-of-blue-chip Australian shares.
I’m very worried how many people are now overextended in big blue-chip companies.
For some reason they see these multi-billion-dollar companies as safe havens.
And they’re willing to punt 10% or more of their wealth on a single blue-chip stock.
That’s a mistake.
As you’ll see in The End of Australia, when a crash starts, two major negative interlocking forces drive the share prices of these stocks much lower than most expect.
In the rush by panicked investors to cash up, the most liquid shares are the most readily saleable. Try selling your specky mining stock in a market meltdown. No chance.
I have highlighted the five most dangerous blue-chip stocks to own right now.
If you hold these stocks, my suggestion is to GET OUT NOW and turn those shares into cash…
STEP #4: PROTECT YOUR WEALTH FROM THE AUSTRALIAN ‘FINANCIAL INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX’
This is possibly the greatest danger of all.
Even while the next crash is unfolding, the investment industry will want to maintain its relevance in your life.
And will keep beating the drum that stock markets in a broken financial world can somehow keep going up.
They will do this, by the way, aided and abetted by the mainstream financial media.
Here’s a smattering of recent headlines during the last sell-off…
‘October’s mini-crash is setting the stage for a happy ending in the stock market’ Market Watch, 1/11/18
‘Stock market sell-off is ‘overdone’ and could rebound on buybacks, Goldman says’ Fortune, 29/10/18
‘The stock market is irrational right now’ Yahoo Finance, 30/10/18
‘Why the Aussie property market WON’T crash’ Yahoo Finance, 31/10/18
‘Is this latest market crash a buying opportunity?’ The National, 28/10/18
Do you notice a recurring theme in those headlines?
The investment industry has every interest in keeping this gravy train rolling…right up until it smashes into the wall. They will use the best and brightest marketers, right until the end, to convince you that you are just ‘panicking’.
And that they have the solutions to your growing concerns.
Seeing the system for what it is will be essential to your financial survival in the coming years.
When you have a system like ours, where over 80% of financial planners have direct or indirect ties to institutions, you, as an investor, have a BIG problem.
And when you factor in compulsory superannuation, you have an even BIGGER problem.
The investment industry, in all its forms (institutions, fund managers, financial planners, stockbrokers, newsletter writers, investment journalists, and so on), has EVERYTHING banked on the market going up...and up...and up.
But what will they do when that reverses?
Do they advise you to get out while you can?
To sell your riskiest investments and get to safer ground?
The answer, for the most part, is no.
The industry…the entire ‘Australian investment complex’…is not built that way.
For that reason, I’ve made it my mission to reveal some low-cost, counterattack strategies…for yourself, your family, and your wealth. Strategies your financial planner may not know about.
If I hear from you right now, I’ll deliver to you:
As I show in my book, those days are coming to an end.
But with all the right wealth-protection measures in place…there is actually a large silver lining to the dark clouds brewing over Australia.
Which brings me to:
STEP #5: PICK THE POINT THAT THE CRASH TURNS INTO AN OPPORTUNITY — AND BUY
‘Let’s find stocks to buy!’
That was the first thing Sir John Templeton told his staff when he arrived at his Wall Street office the morning after Black Monday.
20 October, 1987, was a pretty dark day in the financial world.
But in actual fact, it was also a brilliant time to create future wealth.
A $10,000 stake in the 30 Dow stocks that day was worth over $130,000 just 25 years later, according to Morningstar. That’s an 11% annualised return — even factoring in shareholders’ ‘lost decade’ between 2000 and 2010.
But buying at points of maximum pessimism is perhaps the hardest thing to do as an investor.
Markets don’t usually fall in a straight line. They zig and zag to their final resting place.
Which is why I’ve devoted an entire chapter of The End of Australia to what the resting place will likely be…how to recognise it…and how best to take advantage when we find ourselves there…
With that in mind, perhaps the most potentially profitable section of The End of Australia is the ‘post-crash’ model portfolio.
When the valuation metrics reach a certain point — which I outline in the book — it will be time to start gradually committing your capital to this post-crash portfolio.
I’ll show you which assets to target…and in what order…
…and how to gradually shift into these assets while they are still heavily discounted by investors.
The early chapters of The End of Australia look at protecting what you have and putting away the stores for the lean Long Bust times.
The final chapter of the book will look at deploying that cash into once-in-a-lifetime bargains…
I’ll admit, I’m in the extreme end of the bearish scale.
But those are the stakes.
When the previous booms (dotcom and housing) turned to bust, around five years of gains were reclaimed by the market.
But as I’ve said, my view is this next crash will be far more brutal.
That when this Fed-induced bubble eventually bursts, all the gains since 2009 (and possibly as far back as the mid-90s) will be vaporised.
While the near term is going to be extremely challenging and upsetting, in the longer term I am confident that a stronger, wiser and more prudent Australia will emerge. The aim of The End of Australia is to help you through this period of difficult transition.
I really hope you arrange to have this heavily-subsidised book sent to you today.
Look, there are just some decisions in life you have to get right.
If you’ve got 20, 30 or 40 years left of living left in you, this is a make or break moment. I know that may sound dramatic. But that’s the way it is. Which is why I’m so passionate about trying to protect wealth.
Don’t make the mistake of putting this off and then forgetting about it.
Because when it kicks off, it could happen very quickly.
You saw just how quickly things can spiral in early February.
Now imagine what happens when they KEEP spiralling…
Nervous and panicked bond markets will ricochet onto share and property markets.
Super funds could see jaw-dropping falls of between 30% and 50%...
With restricted credit and cash, share markets being battered and forced selling in property markets, what will this feel like?
Without a China ‘white knight’ to create another mining boom, how serious is the coming bust REALLY going to be…?
I attempt to answer these questions in The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It.
To download your copy of The End of Australia, simply CLICK ON THIS LINK NOW.
There are just two conditions:
Now, if you do appreciate the insights, predictive calls and actionable recommendations that you’ll learn about in those first 30 days — and wish to keep receiving them — you won’t have to do anything.
You’ll be automatically subscribed for 12 months at the end of the 30 days for just $99.
That’s right, just $99.
But if you don’t want to stay on, no problem. Just let us know within 30 days and not one extra cent will leave your account.
But as I say, you can keep everything regardless of whether you wish to remain on as a subscriber or not.
As I mentioned, the biggest danger you face this year and next is the financial industry itself.
It’s not just your own financial future chained to a market that’s about to crash.
A lot of Australians also have their livelihoods tied to this Ponzi scheme.
Call it survival or self-interest, but there is no way they’ll want to be part of the massive contraction when it happens.
Until the crash arrives — and even during it — my view is that the investment industry will use every trick in the book to misguide you.
>> They will make out that you’re stupid for wanting assets like cash, gold and index funds — which also happen to have the lowest fee structures. Funny that!
>> They will continue to pretend that they’re working for you…instead of themselves and their institutional owner. Consumer advocacy group Choice found that ‘…Australia’s six largest financial planning groups had consistently directed customers to their own superannuation products.’
>> They will likely pump an even bigger portion of the fees they extract from you into marketing campaigns to convince you to stay in an increasingly unstable market.
>> They will continue to create the illusion that highly-priced professional management delivers superior performance. When all the data shows that’s just not true…
So I have written a companion book to The End of Australia that helps you see through this BS.
And to give you effective strategies to start ‘in-sourcing’ your financial future out of their hands and back into yours…
You will receive a digital copy of this book — as soon as you order your copy of The End of Australia.
It’s called How Much Bull Can Investors Bear? Seeing Through the Investment Industry’s Smoke and Mirrors.
I have used knowledge, experience and critical thinking from both inside and outside the industry to create for you the definitive ‘fight-back’ guide.
I’m not just doing this because I’m in a unique position to do so
But because I feel I MUST. It’s a moral obligation…
In this guide you will discover:
How Much Bull Can Investors Bear is a warts-and-all look at the money you’re using to fund your lifestyle and future — and the people who have influence over it.
When you dig into these facts — ones that aren’t mentioned in The Australian Financial Review — you’ll start to see why SO MUCH MONEY IS BEING MADE HERE, in this tiny Australasian outpost, by the financial industry.
But not by you.
I could charge $30 a book for both The End of Australia and How Much Bull Can Investors Bear? On Amazon.
But as I said, this is not a money-making exercise for me.
I will give you a downloadable eBook of How Much Bull Can Investors Bear? included in the $4.95 fee.
Again, yours to keep.
One of the people who urged me to write these books was my colleague Bill Bonner.
You may have heard of Bill. He’s a renowned contrarian thinker, and founder of the Agora global financial publishing empire.
Bill has also written an incredibly useful book that I’m going to include in this package.
It’s called Hormegeddon: How Too Much of a Good Thing Leads to Disaster.
If you want to understand EXACTLY what is wrong with the global financial system right now…and what the next big crisis could look like on a global level…you MUST read this book.
Drawing on stories and examples from throughout modern political history — from Napoleon’s invasion of Russia to the impending collapse of the American healthcare system — Hormegeddon sets out to understand one thing:
How good things turn bad.
See, history is not a clean yarn spun by its victors.
It is a long tale of things that went wrong — debacles, disasters and catastrophes.
Bill Bonner realised that each disaster carries with it an important lesson.
For instance…if the architect of a great ocean liner tells you that ‘not even God himself could sink this ship’…you should probably take the next boat.
If the stock market is selling at 20-times earnings and all the expert analysts urge you to ‘get in’ because you ‘can’t lose’…you should probably get out.
Similarly, if a country has gone nearly a quarter of a century without a recession…you should probably expect an equally remarkable counter-reaction.
That is the core theme of Bill Bonner’s Hormegeddon.
It’s a must-read. And it’s yours to download as well…for no extra charge.
There’s one final resource I’d like to give you if I hear from you today. This one isn’t for you, though.
It’s a digital version of my first book, A Parent’s Gift of Knowledge.
This short, 120-page book is for your children and grandchildren.
In fact, I penned it for my own daughters to give them the financial mind-set needed to navigate the trying times ahead.
The new era we are entering will be harder for our children in many ways. They will not have the tailwinds you and me, and our parents, have had for the last 50 years.
The monetary value of a well-balanced family with a strong moral compass and work ethic during this time is impossible to calculate…it really is priceless.
A Parent’s Gift of Knowledge covers how to manage personal finance, stock and property investments, economic events and family decisions in this new world. I invite you to download your copy — and to give copies to your children.
I can’t think of a better, more practical way to arm yourself and your family for what’s coming than to get hold of these resources.
That’s a shameful indictment of our leaders, our media, and our economists.
But it’s the sad truth.
As Bill pointed out when we were mapping out The End of Australia:
‘Vern, nobody else can tell this story. Look at The Wall Street Journal. You look at The Financial Times. They’re not telling it.
‘Because their advertisers don’t want to hear that story!
‘And their customers, the people who buy the papers, they don’t want to hear it either!
‘Government doesn’t want to hear it. They’re the biggest debtor on the planet. They don’t want to hear the end of the credit bubble is coming because they won’t be able to borrow anymore!
‘There are almost no serious financial actors who want to see the truth and want to talk about the truth.
‘It’s only we…the independent financial publishers…that can honestly report on what’s going on. And show people how to prepare.
‘We don’t take advertising. We’re not part of the financial industry. We’re not economists who are paid to look the other way. And we’re not big government.
‘We’re the only ones…’
So I am determined to get this story out there while there’s still time.
That’s why I have put this financial survival package together for you.
Because the future direction of the Australian economy is something no one has experienced before. And I believe it’s going to ruin every Australian who doesn’t see it coming.
Giving access to my books is simply the most effective way to get this life-changing battle plan into your hands.
But precisely because Bill and I are the only ones who can deliver the facts about what’s happening in Australia and the world economy, I’d like to give you one more thing…
Here is the problem you face if you gamble your future on ‘mainstream’ investment advice…
Never — not once in over 30 years in the investment business — have I heard the following two terms used: Secular Bull Market and Secular Bear Market.
Not in presentations. Not in seminars. Not in research papers.
But they exist.
We know from share market charts that, over the very long term (100-plus years), the market’s positive (bullish) periods have certainly outweighed the negative (bearish) ones.
Progress has been made with a pattern of ‘two steps forward and one step back’.
But when secular bear markets DO come…they are BRUTAL.
The problem you have now is that investors don’t have 100-year timeframes. The majority of people have investment horizons that stretch between 20 to 40 years.
So people think that what we’ve had over the past 40 years is normal.
And the industry is more than happy to perpetuate that myth.
It ISN’T normal.
And I’d like to invite you to join a group that faces up to this fact.
It’s like a passport into our world, one that’s not governed by political correctness, the ‘official line’, or partisan media networks.
You see, what I think comes next is going to be shocking. It’s going to be very distressing.
It will likely be a reckoning so severe that it will transcend financial markets and seep into every area of society.
That’s why, as well as my new book, and all the resources I’ve outlined so far, I invite you to take a 30-day, no-obligation trial subscription to my newsletter, The Gowdie Letter.
It’s not an investing service, although I will occasionally cue my readers to an actionable tip if I think it’s worthwhile.
For me, The Gowdie Letter is a personal project.
But for you, it’s a front-row seat to some of the biggest economic changes of our time.
This is a service for people who want more than what they see on TV and in the financial media…who want to tune out all the guff that we’re constantly bombarded with, and tune into something fresh instead.
It’s for people who know that there’s another point of view out there, and who just want a way to tap into it.
Today, I’m inviting you to join The Gowdie Letter and claim everything I’ve mentioned so far, including:
>> The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It.
>> How Much Bull Can Investors Bear: Seeing Through the Investment Industry’s Smoke and Mirrors.
>> Bill Bonner’s Hormegeddon.
>> A Parent’s Gift of Knowledge.
I really think this package of resources could easily sell for $500.00, or even $5,000.00.
But I truly want to get this message out to as many people as possible.
So you get it ALL…for a tiny payment of just $4.95 today. Then at the end of the 30-day trial period, we’ll bill you $99 for a full year’s access to The Gowdie Letter newsletter unless you tell us otherwise.
Now I know what you’re thinking…
Well, as I said: This is not a money-making exercise for me. It’s a mission.
I cannot, in good conscience, stay quiet about what’s about to happen.
Government, institutional economists, real estate agents, stockbrokers and financial planners are not going to tell you anything other than ‘she’ll be right’.
For two reasons…
Firstly because the majority have absolutely no idea how we have arrived at this point of no return. They think going deeper and deeper into debt is normal. After all, this is the way it has been for all their adult lives.
Secondly, there is an immoral minority who DO understand that the system is a giant Ponzi scheme. But they have no intention of revealing the economic fraud. Because that would stop the gravy train.
Well, I won’t stand for this any longer.
If the Long Bust kicks off as I predict, and I didn’t warn people when I could have, I would never forgive myself.
That’s why we’re placing all the resources outlined in this report into your hands for less than $5.
As I said, I want to raise awareness…help you protect yourself…figure out this Long Bust together…and look at ways to take advantage on the other side of it.
First things first; order your copy of The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can Do to Survive It today.
It’s all there.
Get the facts.
Learn how we got into this mess.
How I think the bust is likely to play out.
And the right philosophy you should adopt now to minimise its impact on you and your family.
Don’t let what could happen in Australia over the next few years catch you by surprise.
Get started now by clicking the ‘Order Now’ link below. This will take you to a secure order form on the next page, where you’ll have the chance to review everything once more before ordering your copy of The End of Australia.
In 2016, I had a rather strange meeting in Baltimore with none other than Dr Alan Greenspan.
It was interesting (and surreal) to have been in the company of the man who was the central figure in creating the greatest credit bubble in history.
David Stockman (who has known Alan Greenspan since the late 1970s) was also there.
He told us that, prior to his appointment at the Fed, Greenspan’s economic-consulting business had been losing money hand-over-fist.
If you can’t make it in the private sector, where do you go?
You guessed it: The public sector.
My personal view is that he enjoyed the power, fame, prestige and privilege that came with being the Chair of the Federal Reserve. It was a massive ego stroke.
I’ll include the transcript of our full and startling conversation in your End of Australia Survival Package.
To repeat: You pay just $4.95 today. After that order is processed you’ll be sent an email giving you full download instructions for The End of Australia: The Real Story Behind Australia’s Coming Economic Collapse and What You Can do to Survive It.
You probably sense that the market is on a precipice. What few people realise, though, is how quickly gains that have taken years to build can disappear.
In the space of a couple of months, the ASX gave back gains that have been building since March 2015.
You’ve yet to see an out-and-out crash, though. But it’s coming…
And I believe it’s going to be BRUTAL. The truth is that it could be orders of magnitude bigger than the dotcom and Global Financial Crisis (GFC) crashes. You could see decades of gains blown away in a very short space of time.
If you can’t afford to see your wealth shrink by possibly two-thirds in value, you need to prepare NOW. The End of Australia can help you do that.
You will ALSO receive:
BONUS GIFT #1. Vern Gowdie’s How Much Bull Can Investors Bear: Seeing Through the Investment Industry’s Smoke and Mirrors. A blistering takedown of the ‘Australian Financial Complex’ and how to protect your wealth from it. Not available online or in bookshops.
BONUS GIFT #2. Hormegeddon: How Too Much of a Good Thing Leads to Disaster by Bill Bonner. Retailing at $36 on Amazon. Yours to download and read immediately.
BONUS GIFT #3: A Parent's Gift of Knowledge. A vital resource in arming your children and grandchildren for the coming crisis.
BONUS GIFT #4: An EXCLSIVE transcript of Vern Gowdie’s meeting with Dr Alan Greenspan in Baltimore in January 2017. Absolutely fascinating fly-on-the-wall access to this extraordinary (and private) discussion with one of the most powerful men of the last 30 years. Not available anywhere else.
To repeat: All of the above is yours today for just $4.95.
PLUS you will receive a 30-day trial of The Gowdie Letter with NO OBLIGATION to stay on as a subscriber.
The Gowdie Letter is focused on guiding you through Australia’s Long Bust — month by month.
This is where Vern shares specific protection moves and opportunities on a monthly basis.
The full Gowdie Letter archive and investment recommendation list will be yours to study for 30 days after you place your order — obligation-free.
That’s A WHOLE MONTH to examine everything, including your Survival Package (which you’ll get to keep, with our compliments, whatever you decide).
After your 30-day, no-obligation trial comes to a close, we’ll automatically bill your card $99 for a one-year subscription to The Gowdie Letter. Your subscription will then automatically renew annually thereafter at the regular fee of $99 a year.
As mentioned above, that’s no problem. If — for whatever reason — you decide within that time this research and advisory service is not right for you, that’s fine.
Just email or call our customer service team within the first 30 days and let them know you’d like to end your subscription to The Gowdie Letter. You will never be billed another cent.
But if you love what we’re doing and see the unique benefits of this service…then you won’t have to do anything else. On day 31 your card will automatically be billed $99 for a one-year subscription to The Gowdie Letter. Your subscription will then automatically renew annually thereafter at the regular fee of $99 a year, unless we hear otherwise from you.
Vern Gowdie has been involved in financial planning since 1986. In 1999, Personal Investor magazine ranked Vern as one of Australia’s Top 50 financial planners. His previous firm, Gowdie Financial Planning was recognised in 2004, 2005, 2006 & 2007, by Independent Financial Adviser (IFA) magazine as one of the top five financial planning firms in Australia. He has been writing his 'Big Picture' column for regional newspapers since 2005 and has been a commentator on financial matters for Prime Radio talkback. His contrarian views often place him at odds with the financial planning profession. Vern is Founder and Chairman of the Gowdie Family Wealth advisory service, a monthly newsletter with a clear aim: to help you build and protect wealth for future generations of your family. He is also editor of The Gowdie Letter, which aims to help you protect and grow your wealth during the great credit contraction.
Well, simply put, markets won’t crash. Things will keep going for the next 10 years like they have for the last 10. There should be no assumption that the protection measures he advises will reap rewards…if markets don’t go as Vern predicts, you could actually even lose your money. Or, at least, forfeit any further gains if you stay out of the market and it keeps rising.
That’s a risk if you read the book, agree with Vern’s thesis and take the measures he advises.
But Vern is absolutely unequivocal in his thesis. And when someone with his experience says a 70% crash in stocks is not just possible but probable…you should study the case that they make very carefully. Then arrive at your own judgement.
As Vern says:
‘Booms are always, always, always followed by busts.
‘It really is that simple.
‘If we use the busting of the two previous Fed-blown market bubbles as a guide, then you should expect that all the gains made during the boom will be surrendered in the bust.
‘In fact, this coming bust could take back even more than what’s been made since 2009.
‘Given the historic nature of the boom, it’s only reasonable to expect an equally momentous bust.
‘Staying around for an extra few percent makes no sense when you’re at risk of seeing 70% or more of your capital being sent to the ether.
‘That’s a reward versus risk equation that just doesn’t add up to long term wealth creation.’
Read The End of Australia. Study the analysis. And decide for yourself if the risk-reward equation of staying in the market…and NOT putting some protection measures in place…adds up for you.