Did we just hit
***and NOBODY noticed...?***
What’s the REAL driver behind gold’s price breakout?
The answer could cause a re-run of the 1970s ‘granddaddy’ gold bull — which spawned AVERAGE gains of 2,313.7% over two years…
Some questionable things came out of the 1970s.
Disco…shag pile carpet…David Cassidy.
For stock investors, though, the main question was:
Where did my returns go?
You’re supposed to get rewarded for staying in stocks.
But if you’d white-knuckled that decade of double-digit inflation, oil price shocks, recession and political instability…you’d have ended up with basically zilch.
Unless, that is, you stuck solely to gold stocks…
Take a look:
Source: Casey Research
Through the 1970s, major stock indices went nowhere.
While a ferocious bull market took place in the background…
Gold mining stocks rose an AVERAGE of 652%.
As the S&P returned a drab 22%.
The Dow Jones industrial average did even worse, gaining just 4.8%.
For 10 years in the market!
In the 1970s, your average gold stock investor did 125-times better.
But that was just your average investor.
What if you’d taken a bit more risk…been a bit more selective…and bought smaller gold explorers that did better than average?
If you did that, you could have entered the 1980s with serious coin.
During the end ‘blow-off’ stage of that boom alone, in 1979 and 1980, many gold miners became 10-baggers (1,000% or more).
Here’s a chart of just some of those giant price hikes, compiled by Casey Research:
Source: Casey Research
Look hard at those percentages.
An average gain of 2,313.7% over just two years.
With one of those plays, Copper Lake, breaching 13,000% in that 24-month period.
Look, I’ll be blunt:
I’ve put together this white paper because I believe there is the potential for a 1970s repeat in the gold market over the next 12–24 months.
And I've selected four little-known gold producers I believe could see 1970s-style gains. If you’re a speculator I believe you should take a position in each of them NOW.
Keep in mind: those returns in the table above are real.
In fact, they may just be a small sample of what occurred.
The chart above is by no means comprehensive.
Casey Research put it together after microfiche research in The Wall Street Journal and also included ‘information we’ve had from Scott Hunter of Haywood Securities; Larry Page, then-president of the Manex Resource Group; and the dusty archives at the Northern Miner.’
It’s super hard to get non-electronic data from that period.
Especially on the junior explorers.
So we could assume there were more nutso gains made in that two-year period that have been lost to time.
The 1970s gold bull was NOT an outlier
There’s historical precedence for really, really big gains being made during gold up-cycles.
The tricky parts are: predicting that cycle, and owning the RIGHT stocks with direct exposure to a discovery area.
Take the 1990s gold bull…
As that decade kicked off, the 1978/79 mania was a distant memory.
But The Market Oracle takes up the story from there...
‘…Another series of gold discoveries in the mid-1990s set off one of the most stunning bull markets in the current generation.
‘Companies with big discoveries included Diamet, Diamond Fields, and Arequipa…
‘By the summer of ’96, these discoveries had sparked another bull cycle, and companies with little more than a few drill holes were selling for $20 a share.
‘The average producer more than tripled investors’ money during this period.
‘Once again, these gains occurred in a relatively short period of time, in this case inside of two years.’
Here’s how some of the small-fry players performed…
Source: Casey Research
That average return of close to 4,000% tops the late 1970s!
It’s easy to pick out these gains in retrospect. Much harder to identify them before their run-up. But you can see how much money you could have made here if you bought and sold at the right time.
So what’s my point here?
It’s that booms like the 1970s granddaddy gold bull…as well as the one in the mid-1990s…are exceedingly rare.
But they are FORTUNE MAKERS. If you anticipate them. And play them correctly.
So, if there’s even a tiny whiff of one brewing once more…you’re a smart cookie if you AT LEAST look into it more carefully. You agree?
Which is precisely why I’m writing to you now.
I’ve been working closely on an outside-the-box gold strategy you need to know about asap.
It’s centred round the recent US dollar gold price breakout.
BUT…you won’t be doing what everyone else is doing.
Which is increasing gold exposure…and buying into the big gold producers (the Australian ones have already run hard this year).
What you’re about to delve into is much more leftfield.
‘His thoughts and tips have turned my portfolio around and made my professional Investment Advisor green with envy’
I have been a subscriber of Greg’s for about 10 years and have invested “through his epiphany”. His thoughts and tips have turned my portfolio around and made my professional Investment Advisor green with envy. I have learned so much that I now feel confident in my own analysis. Greg doesn’t have subscribers – he has disciples. The tone of his newsletter is open, honest and frank, complete with the occasional “mea culpa”. He has become my best friend in the lonely world of independent investing.
Riskier, yes. But, potentially, INSANELY rewarding.
I’m talking 1978/1979 or even 1990s gold bull gains.
That’s if something called ‘Peak Gold’ starts to influence the market as I predict…
…And if you own the right small players before the bigger companies move on them.
We’ll get to my stock selections for the new gold bull market later in this white paper.
First, let’s ask an obvious question…
What the heck’s going on with gold right now?
Gold is back. It’s impossible to ignore.
The price is, in the words of Bloomberg columnist John Authers, going ‘crazy’.
In June it leapt out of a long-term trading range and breached US$1,400 an ounce — a six-year high. At the same time, the Aussie dollar gold price smashed through A$2,000 an ounce, an all-time high.
Investors are clearly flocking to gold.
Now, I believe (at the time of writing), that gold has run up too quickly.
But this is the nature of bull markets. You’ll see periods of overextension. And you’ll see pullbacks.
But I think these pullbacks should be BOUGHT.
And I believe you should start accumulating an unloved and undervalued portfolio of small mining explorers NOW. Before the mania reaches their share prices.
In my view, something REALLY big has begun.
And now several other analysts are envisaging a much, MUCH bigger move ahead.
Martin Place Securities Executive Chairman Barry Dawes, for instance, recently went on record predicting a gold price push to A$10,000/oz in the next decade.
DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Officer Jeffrey Gundlach (known as the bond King) says he is ‘“certainly long gold,” given expectations the dollar, which stands to take a hit if the Fed lowers interest rates, will close the year weaker.’
‘“Trade of the century”: Buy gold, sell stocks,’ says $25bn hedge fund, Crescent Capital.
Paul Tudor Jones told Bloomberg in June it’s now his favourite trade in the next 12–24 months.
‘[Gold] has everything going for it,’ he said.
After a long and deep bear market, US gold mining stocks (as measured by the GDX and GDXJ indices) made multi-year highs in June.
And you’re seeing countries themselves now joining the gold rush…
‘Russia Is Dumping US Dollars to Hoard Gold’ — BNN BLOOMBERG
‘China's gold-buying spree continues as central-bank market booms’ — BUSINESS INSIDER
‘Central bank gold buying hits highest level in half a century’ — CNBC
What makes this breakout even more significant is the amount of time it’s taken.
Check this out…
As you can see, gold has been trading in a massive range for nearly six years.
Prolonged sideways moves in an asset or stock price — especially when the sideways moves are a part of a bottoming pattern — are always interesting to observe.
In technical jargon, this pattern is referred to as accumulation.
That is, investors accumulate whatever stock or gold is offered at lower prices. This helps prices form a bottom.
This is clearly what happened with gold.
Now, based on my observations of charting, the longer a stock or asset spends in the accumulation phase, the bigger its move will be when it finally breaks out.
That breakout occurred in June. That’s why I believe you’re set to see a very big move in the gold price in the months ahead.
But the thing is: I’m now not alone in this view.
Gold’s return to prominence is now a mainstream story.
And you generally don’t make supersized returns following the flock, do you?
You need a NON-mainstream way into this story.
And I’ve found one for you.
See, I believe mainstream commentators are missing a crucial piece of the puzzle.
I believe they’ve got the root cause of the recent gold price uptick wrong.
At least partially wrong.
Yes — the short-term thinking of central bankers is setting the platform for yet another mega gold bull. Like the ones that have come before — in the 70s and the 90s.
If the research I’ve spent the last several months collecting is correct…something entirely new is in play in the gold market.
Something that has never presented itself before.
It’s got very little to do with Fed interest rates.
Or trade tariffs.
Or a possible war with Iran.
It’s been almost completely missed by mainstream financial media.
And when it HAS been reported, it’s been quickly dismissed as ‘fake news’ by some reports.
But I just HAVE to fill you in on it.
And also share details on four potential ‘screamer’ stocks I think might benefit most from it.
As I mentioned, the longer a stock or an asset price trades within a range, the more power it builds for an eventual break out.
And gold is breaking now.
Only, this time, something new is at play.
‘I don’t think you can be anything but bullish on gold in the near-term after this significant technical breakout.’
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management
Something called PEAK GOLD.
And if I’m right, it’s going to make this next gold bull market historic…
My name, by the way, is Greg Canavan
I’m Editorial Director at Port Phillip Publishing.
Long-time readers will know I spent much of the 2000s researching and talking in the media to anyone who would listen about gold and gold stocks.
Gold was in a resurgence after years of stagnation.
During this period, I was a regular guest on CNBC, ABC and BoardRoom Radio. I gave my analysis on to publications as diverse as LewRockwell.com and had a regular column in The Sydney Morning Herald.
By the time the top came in 2011, gold had hit a record high of $1,900 an ounce.
And many junior gold mining stocks — Medusa Mining and St Barbara Minds, just two I recommended at the time — enjoyed substantial price gains.
You know what happened next though. Gold fell asleep.
It went nowhere while stocks soared.
Even the most avid gold bugs started questioning their loyalty.
Many brokers exited the space entirely.
‘Consistently high-quality picks’
Consistently high quality picks -The stocks you pick do not go up on recommendation and then go down with a thud never to return, instead they always have a gentle and sure rise as the story behind them unfold. They are of investment quality.
Speculators migrated to rare earths, cryptos and cannabis.
And gold slept on…
But since September last year, gold has stirred…
And in the last month or two, it’s started to really roar.
According to Kitco News, money managers are hiking up bullish positioning.
Retail investors, too, are turning back to bullion.
As you’ve seen, big name investors are talking about gold with a straight face again.
We’re also seeing big takeover action and elbowing between gold mining giants like Barrick, Randgold, Newmont, and Goldcorp.
So, what’s the deal?
Why gold and why now?
Here’s what the mainstream press is telling you…
We’re entering a 1970s-like era of uncertainty.
And gold is stirring because it’s seen as an uncertainty hedge.
Trade tensions between the US and its partners. Oil tanker attacks in the Middle East.
News flow like this creates additional buying.
And the resulting price break higher generates more technical-chart momentum.
A self-perpetuating process.
Also, people are worrying about the end of this mega-stock bull market.
Central banks are signposting that the end could be approaching. They bought up more gold in 2018 than in any year since 1971 — 651 tonnes of the stuff. At a time when global gold production increased just 30 tonnes from 2017 to 2018.
And look what’s happened to the gold price since the end of 2017…
It’s not rocket science.
When demand outstrips supply, you get a price breakout.
That’s what you see above.
That’s the STANDARD and OFFICIAL explanation for what’s happening in the gold market right now…
But it’s the non-official story that you should be focusing on.
It’s a story I’m going to break for you in the pages that follow.
I’m writing to you now because there’s something else going on here.
Gold fever is spreading.
That much is clear.
But it’s my contention that central bank buying, stock market risk and geopolitical tensions are RED HERRINGS.
And it’s all down to a quasi-mythical term that’s been bandied around in gold circles for some time now: PEAK GOLD.
The murmurs began back in May 2018...
‘A stable hand in a
Greg, have been following you before and since you started Crisis & Opporunity. As a more mature but still learning investor, I always look forward to your balanced and knowledgeable letters and I have done very well with some of your recommendations, please keep it up! Some of us do not require heaps of hype to guide us, just sensible and balanced information to form our own opinion. Your guidance is very valuable, thorough and worth every penny, a stable hand in a fast changing world.
The Financial Post ran an article on Canadian miner Goldcorp's chairman, Ian Telfer which reported:
‘Ian Telfer, chairman of Goldcorp Inc., is the latest industry magnate to predict the world has reached “peak gold,” saying that from here on out, mine production will continue to decline because all the major deposits have been discovered.
‘“If I could give one sentence about the gold mining business … it’s that in my life, gold produced from mines has gone up pretty steadily for 40 years,” said Telfer. “Well, either this year it starts to go down, or next year it starts to go down, or it’s already going down.”
‘“We’re right at peak gold here,” he added.’
Few took him seriously at the time.
Many who put the word ‘peak’ in front of something tend to be labelled scaremongers or cranks.
The term Peak Gold is an offshoot of the more famous concept of Peak Oil.
This was invented by a famous geologist/geophysicist called M King Hubbert in 1956.
He said oil production would peak in 1970, and never reach that level again.
He was right…for a while. The monster oil fields of the United States did peak.
But, 47 years later, they reached that peak again. And now America is producing more oil than ever.
So I get the cynicism when referring to Peak Gold.
Predicting the maximum production date of a resource is fraught with difficulty.
And can make you look very silly if you’re wrong.
However, with the right investments, I believe it could make you some very juicy potential returns if you’re right. Provided you make your move before most regular retail investors cotton on…
And that’s the purpose of this white paper.
Technically speaking, Peak Gold is a specific time.
A date when the maximum amount of gold we take out of the earth is reached.
After that, gold production declines. Eventually to zero.
That’s the rigid definition.
Sunshine Profits defines Peak as ‘the point of greatest development, value or intensity’.
The problem is…people have claimed we’ve reached this point before. And each time mining production recovered and ramped up again. See here…
World mined-gold production peaked four times since the last century or so: in 1912, 1940, 1971, and 2001.
Who’s to say that won’t just continue on?
What evidence is there that we could be, finally, reaching Peak Gold?
And that it could could AMPLIFY and ACCELERATE the next gold cycle…possibly creating the biggest gold bull run of all time?
I’ll lay out everything I’ve discovered on the topic during the rest of this white paper — as clearly as I can. And then you can make your own decision on what kind of shadow — if any — Peak Gold will cast over the next bullion up-cycle…
‘Imagine the world without the production of gold. The end of the mining of the yellow metal. The termination of all gold mines. No more gold nuggets, no grain, no flakes…’
With Peak Gold, the world isn’t going to collapse, as it would according to the Hubbert Peak theory for oil. Gold, unlike oil, doesn’t keep the world running.
Unlike oil, which can’t be reused once burnt, gold can be recycled.
If we HAVE reached Peak Gold (and I’m going to make that case in this white paper) it doesn’t even mean gold production is going to fall off a cliff overnight.
But what it DOES mean is this…
When the normal cycle of a gold bull market comes around…miners, in general, will have less capacity to ramp up production to take advantage of the higher prices.
So if you own stock in the few miners who DO have that capacity…you could potentially (absolutely no guarantees) put yourself in the running for 1979/1980-level gains.
And those gains, remember, were absolutely crazy.
The stuff of investment folklore.
As Casey Research pointed out in March 2014 (my highlighting added):
‘If you had bought a reasonably diversified portfolio of top-performing gold juniors prior to 1979, your initial investment could have grown 23 times in just two years. If you had managed to grab 80% of that move, your gains would still have been over 1,850%.
‘This means a junior priced at $0.50 today that captured the average gain from this boom would sell for $12 at the top, or $9.75 at 80%. If you own ten juniors, imagine just one of them matching Copper Lake’s better than 100-bagger performance.
‘Here’s what returns of this magnitude could mean to you. Let’s say your portfolio includes $10,000 in gold juniors that yield spectacular gains such as the above. If the next boom cycle matches the 1979-1980 pattern, your portfolio could be worth $241,370 at its peak…or about $195,000 if you exit at 80% of the top prices.’
$10,000 into $241,370.
You can see why I’ve pulled some strings to get this research out to you as early as possible.
Because gold is already moving. And I don’t want you kicking yourself for coming late to what could be a monumental party.
A couple of points to bring you back down to Earth before we go any further.
Firstly: those gains above would require you to sell at exactly the right time to realise your profits.
You needed to be shrewd and ‘play the cycle’ perfectly.
When the gold bust came, it came hard. Many of the juniors — even some on the list to the right — got blown out of existence.
And many investors who saw thousand-plus percent gains in 1979/1980…but grimly held on and refused to sell…saw pretty much all those gains go up in smoke.
Source: Casey Research
So that’s something you need to be aware of if we’re talking about a potential repeat of that heady time in the next two to four years.
Selling smart is almost more important than buying smart.
Second, we’re talking small to tiny gold mining stocks here.
Even in a raging bull market these can become worthless if you choose incorrectly.
So, in no uncertain terms, I want to steer you away from this if you don’t have speculative cash you’re more than happy to put at risk.
Third ‘back-down-to-Earth’ point: You hear the old phrase in our business, ‘past performance is not a guide to the future.’
That is even more applicable here.
There were a bunch of dynamics in the gold market in the 1970s that are not applicable today.
We know the gold market moves in cycles.
We believe that gold appears to be just starting to break out of the last down cycle.
And for the rest of this paper I’m going to make a case that Peak Gold is asserting itself for the first time in history.
But there is absolutely no guarantee we will ever see a gold bull of 1970s-magnitude, the granddaddy of gold booms, again.
However, I repeat — even if there’s just a hint of something like that potentially brewing…it’s something worth investigating further, right?
And it would also pay to start thinking very hard about what junior explorers and producers might appear on a similar chart at the end of such a bull market.
I am confident that I can face any obstacles and hurdles that the Future Economy and Geopolitics may throw at me. I am confident that I will be able to retire with a comfortable nest egg for the future. Greg, I cannot thank you enough for the advice, help, and knowledge you have given me. I am now fully prepared for whatever the future may hold. Without Crisis & Opportunity, my financial position would be considerably different. Thanks again. Kind regards.
Of all the subscriptions I receive from PPP I can honestly say that I find the information provided by Greg Canavan the most thorough and on the mark. I like his use and explanation of the charts and he provides the best of all analysts. Since the early days of PPP Greg has been the person I have felt who has provided the most credible analysis.
I’m sure I’m one of many who enjoys reading Greg’s emails and I hope it continues to flourish. His advice is usually incisive but more importantly he goes to great lengths to justify his recommendations.
Hi, I've been a subscriber of Crisis & Opportunity since day 1 as well as a subscriber to Greg Caravan's previous newsletter. In all honesty Greg's work has become a mainstay for my financial decisions; over a long period time he continues to maintain a sincere, humble approach to his publication that develops a sense of trust for the reader. Thanks
As I say, I have four whose details I want to share with you.
I’ve marked each as critical buys.
But before we get to them, we’ve got some ground to cover…
‘…sets the stage for a rip-roaring bull market’
Now, Peak Gold is a controversial subject.
Many mining magnates dismiss it.
It’s not in their interests to scare shareholders with stories about all their high-grade deposits getting tapped out.
Lots of resource wonks call it ‘fake news’, like Mickey Fulp for Kitco.com who writes:
‘I strongly disagree with his malthusian view… on the future of gold mining’.
But one expert who’s been a vocal proponent of Peak Gold is Ian Telfer, chairman of Goldcorp. Goldcorp was recently bought by Newmont Mining to become the world’s largest gold miner.
Telfer said last year:
‘In my life, gold produced from mines has gone up pretty steadily for 40 years. Well, either this year it starts to go down, or next year it starts to go down, or it’s already going down…We’re right at peak gold here.’
Is he right?
And here’s the important part…
If he IS right, could Peak Gold be a factor that transforms the next natural up-cycle in gold into a bull-blown 1970s-style mania?
The Peak Oil thesis was defeated by new technologies like fracking and horizontal drilling completely changing the dynamics in the energy markets.
Couldn’t new tech also change the game in the gold mining industry?
I’m now going to present you with some of the research I’ve uncovered.
Don’t worry — I’ll keep it pretty simple.
We’re going to break it into three parts.
PART #1 is where we put some facts on the table, pros and cons, about Peak Gold.
Study them, then make up your own mind.
In PART #2 we’re going to look at the gold market in general right now. Why the price is rising, and the odds of another historic buying mania going into next year.
I’ll show you some distinct parallels to the 1970s.
And why pressure is building towards a massive increase in gold demand.
Again, you can make up your own mind on whether you agree with me or not. And whether Peak Gold is going to insert itself into the story.
But let’s say I at least half convince you that Part #1 and Part #2 are true.
Then the equation is pretty simple:
PEAK GOLD + NEW GOLD MANIA =
POTENTIAL 1970s-LIKE GAINS FROM COMPANIES IN THE EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT PHASE.
And so we’ll get to Part #3.
Which specific explorers, in a Peak Gold World, are positioned the best to take advantage?
Now, this is the intriguing thing, so listen closely…
The return of focus to gold is great for the big existing producers. In Australia at least, their share prices are hitting all-time highs.
But the companies in the exploration or development phase are seeing little to no benefit at all.
I have a list of around 200 ASX-listed gold stocks. I go through the charts of these stocks each week looking for opportunities. That is, I’m looking for prices that are starting to trend higher. It tells me that there is something potentially positive happening, which triggers further investigation. Apart from the producers, I can tell you that most of these stocks are in downtrends!
Given the record high gold prices in Aussie dollars, that is incredible!
But, as I’m going to try and prove to you, that’s potentially about to change.
And, if I’m right, so too could the fortunes of four specific stocks…
We’ll cover these guys in Part #3.
So strap in and let’s get to it. As I say, I’ll try and keep things as streamlined— and OBJECTIVE — as possible…
The Case for Peak Gold
So let’s start with a few facts that are not in dispute.
We know that the rate of gold mine discoveries has fallen over the past three decades.
So that’s a different dynamic at play that wasn’t there in the 70s.
That’s happened despite that fact that miners have sunk more and more money into exploration. This is backed up by World Gold Council figures. Check it out…
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Despite that big spike in spending you can see, what would typically be defined as ‘world class deposit’ discoveries (5 million ounces and over) have been few and far between.
These ‘mega mines’ account for around half of global production right now.
We know that the average grade of new gold deposits is falling too.
That’s the amount of gold that can be extracted per ton of ore.
According to Metals Focus, it’s slumped from over 10 grams per ton in the early 1970s to just 1.4 grams per ton today.
That’s a mighty fall, right?
So fewer big discoveries.
And much poorer quality discoveries.
As Goldcorp’s Ian Telfer asks:
‘Are we not looking for it? Are we bad at finding it? Or have we found it all? My answer is we found it all. At US$1,300 (per ounce of) gold, we found it all. I don’t think there are any more mines out there, or nothing significant.’
What’s noticeable now is that Telfer is no longer a lone voice:
According to Zero Hedge, Pierre Lassonde, the billionaire founder of Franco-Nevada Gold also believes the same. Stating that,‘“peak gold” is here and current mine supplies are at risk.’
CEO and Chairman of Seabridge Gold Rudy Fronk has gone on record saying ‘peak gold is the new reality…’
Even Kevin Dushnisky, President of mining giant Barrick Gold, reckons: 'Falling grades and production levels, [as well as] a lack of new discoveries’, are what’s going to drive the next gold bull market.
Now, I said we’re going to strive for objectivity here.
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I have found Crisis & Opportunity to be indispensable both for a sound overview of what is happening but also for well thought through investment tips. Greg Canavan is my first port of call when considering the options available under the Port Phillips Publishing banner. I am invested in 6 of his tips and those investments have been very successful for me.
So it needs to be pointed out that while more people are getting on board with this thesis each month, it’s not without critics.
‘Speculation the gold industry had seen “peak production” was overdone’ head of mine economics at Metals Focus, Charles Cooper, tells The Mining Journal.
Mickey Fulp for Kitco.com calls Peak Oil ‘fake news’.
But even he then admits:
‘I will grant you that any one or all of the cabal of serially unsuccessful major gold miners, including Goldcorp Inc, may have found all the gold that they are capable of finding.’
You can see what he means here.
This is a table showing the percentage decline in production of the biggest gold miners since they each reached their personal ‘peak golds’:
Those are pretty damning numbers.
This shows dramatically the decline in Barrick Gold’s production alone…
Source: Bloomberg; US Global Investors; Zero Hedge
It’s not a silly question to ask:
If gold demand is about to surge (and I’ll make the case for this in Part #2)…where’s that gold going to come from if all significant gold deposits on Earth have already been found?
Now, an argument could be made that it will come from mid-tier miners. Look at this…
In the interests of balance, that chart tells a different story.
These mid-tiers have seen big production increases between 2000 and 2017.
But here’s the thing…
Let me remind you of the Peak Gold thesis: that all the ‘world class deposits’ (5 million ounces and over) have been found.
The mid-tiers above are dealing, for the most part, with much smaller deposits.
Here’s another thing we know…
The gold mining industry has gone into consolidation mania recently.
The big guns…who HAVE reached Peak Gold…are now coming after the smaller ones who haven’t.
The result is the current ‘merger mania’ in the gold sector.
In 2018 Barrick Gold and Randgold merged.
This year it’s been Newmont Mining buying Goldcorp.
One of South Africa’s oldest miners, DRDGOLD Limited, has bought the gold and platinum miner Sibanye-Stillwater’s West Rand Tailings Retreatment Project (WRTRP).
Why is this?
To me it’s pretty damn simple…
The gold mining majors see what’s coming…
A solid argument can be made that merger and acquisition activity isn’t just heating up in anticipation of the next bull run…
…but that deals are being struck because big miners are trying to secure as much bullion as possible in a Peak Gold world.
As Stefan Gleason of the Money Metals Exchange writes:
‘It’s difficult these days for the majors to even identify viable new projects that would add significantly to their asset base.
‘As new discoveries shrink, many have decided it makes more sense to buy up the assets of smaller competitors while they are on sale.’
Laurentian Bank Securities analyst Ryan Hanley reckons this consolidation mania is only going to ramp up:
‘Given the lengthy amount of time required to explore, discover, delineate, permit, finance, and build a new mine, merger and acquisition is a much faster way to replace reserves,’ he told DW.
So let’s translate that (and this is really important):
Instead of spending money on ACTUALLY EXPLORING AND DEVELOPING NEW deposits…
‘The prospective impact of a lack of "world class" discoveries on future gold production can be gauged from the fact that such mines account for nearly half of the global gold production today. The average grade of the new gold deposits — the amount of gold that can be extracted per ton — has also been declining.’
…the mining majors are shoring up their bottom lines by BUYING SMALLER, EXISTING DEPOSITS.
So all this consolidation is doing NOTHING to make sure more new ounces are being dug up on a global basis.
As FXstreet.com reported:
‘After years of “high grading” — processing the easier to get, higher quality deposits first — future gold extraction costs could get progressively steeper for existing major mines.’
Now, these factors alone would suggest a huge supply crunch is coming.
That’s if Part #2 of this white paper is correct, and we’re going to see ‘the lid blow off’ in the gold market.
They would also suggest that it would be prudent to look for smaller gold assets to own BEFORE the big gold producers go shopping for them.
We’ll get to those opportunities in Part #3.
In that section we look at four hidden gem explorers that I believe have major upside ahead of them. In fact they may well become buyout targets.
And when I say ‘hidden’, I mean it.
So far, the failure of this early-stage bull market to flow down into, and directly benefit the speculative juniors, has been quite extraordinary.
We’ll get to these stocks soon.
But let’s look at some more facts regarding how much gold is still there for the taking.
What else do we know?
We know that Australia, Canada and the United States make up 40% of global exploration spending.
And that a century and a half of heavy mining in these countries has left them pretty tapped out. According to DW (my emphasis added):
‘"It's fair to say that all low-hanging fruits have been plucked," says John Ing, a mining analyst at Maison Placements Canada. "The miners will need to turn to countries such as Ecuador and some other places in Latin America or Africa, because places like Canada have been well picked over."’
Just look at this…
Source: Zero Hedge
Zero Hedge calls the collapse in South African gold production the ‘classic canary in the coal mine’.
And states that it likely foreshadows the coming decline in global gold production.
In 1970, right before the granddaddy gold bull, South Africa pulled 1,000 tonnes of gold out of the ground.
In recent years that’s fallen back to 250 tonnes — a level last seen in 1922.
Zero Hedge goes on to ask an important question.
In fact, it’s a question that is the very reason you’re reading this white paper right now.
It is this:
‘What happens when the unstoppable force
of robust global demand for gold meets the immovable object of a small, finite, rare and dwindling supply of physical gold?’
That to me is the ONLY question you should be asking right now.
And yet very few are!
And that’s bloody awesome.
Because, for now at least, there seems to still be extreme risk aversion at the smaller end of the gold market.
Which means my four explorer selections remain stone-cold bargains.
Of course, you may only see potential 1970s granddaddy gains from them if we REALLY ARE at the starting stages of another historic gold bull market.
If I’m wrong on that, these stocks might nowhere, regardless of Peak Gold.
So let’s put that under a microscope in:
The Case for a 1970s-Level Gold Mania
As I write, the Aussie-dollar gold price is hovering around $2,000 an ounce.
But gold is also breaking out in other currencies.
For example, gold in Canadian dollars just broke out to multi-year highs (see chart below). It’s the highest level since its 2011 peak.
In euros, gold just hit the highest price since April 2017…
Priced in British pounds, in late June gold hit its highest level since 2012…
In Swiss francs, gold is at a six-year high…
While priced in Chinese yuan, gold is also at a six-year high…
Gold is starting to move in all major global currencies, clearly.
Put simply: global capital is starting to realise this whole, juiced-up cycle is starting to turn. Risk assets have had their run. And it’s been a good one.
But now, the smart money is starting to take a position in gold.
It sees storm clouds brewing, and smart investors want to take cover before the deluge begins.
Look at this…
It shows the Morgan Stanley Business Conditions Index. As you can see, the seasonally-adjusted headline index has fallen off a cliff. It’s the worst reading since the great recession of 2009.
This disconnect with stock prices near record highs is stark.
Central bankers are trying to get ahead of the problem with promises of more stimulus. They want to weaken their currencies to get an economic advantage.
But they can’t all weaken together.
They can, however, weaken together against gold, and that is exactly what is happening right now.
So on a basic scale, we’re witnessing the smart money turning to gold again.
But Wall Street isn’t just looking for safety.
As Safehaven.com put it recently:
‘What Wall Street knows as an incontrovertible truth is this: Fear is a bargain.
‘And right now, there’s so much fear floating around the market that gold is back on everyone’s radar, with incredible bargains…
‘When Wall Street goes bargain hunting, it’s looking for discount gold.
‘One way it does so is by targeting junior miners with major upside, setting short-term price targets that make these undervalued global gold assets ground zero for investors who are fleeing the next potential economic meltdown.’
In Part #3 I outline a similar strategy that you can employ at the individual level.
What happens NEXT for gold?
Could it REALLY be the 1970s all over again?
Obviously I don’t know for certain.
No one does.
But I can make a calculated guess.
Paul Tudor Jones pictures a rapid rise to $US1,700 an ounce.
This is his reasoning for making gold his number #1 trade right now (my highlighting added):
‘Remember we’ve had 75 years of expanding globalization and trade, and we built the machine around the belief that’s the way the world’s going to be.
‘Now all of a sudden it’s stopped, and we are reversing that.
‘When you break something like that, the consequences won’t be seen at first, it might be seen one year, two years, three years later. That would make one think that it’s possible that we (the US) go into a recession.
‘That would make one think that rates in the US go back toward the zero bound and in the course of that situation, gold is going to scream.’
I can certainly picture gold bursting through US$1,700 by the end of this year.
But how far from there?
Is it REALLY possible that we could see a 1970s repeat?
And, this time, with Peak Gold as a major factor?
Let’s very quickly go back to that period…
On 15 August 1971, President Nixon went on national TV to declare the end of gold convertibility. This put an end to the Bretton Woods financial system.
In effect, this move put an end to a coordinated gold price suppression operation.
Central banks could no longer convert their excess US dollars into gold at $35.
They could still buy gold in the open market. But would have to pay market prices to do so.
Following the closing of the gold window in August 1971, the lid well and truly blew off the gold price. Years of building pressure manifested in strongly rising prices.
The annual price rises for gold were as follows:
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‘I told him straight up that Crisis & Opportunity is the best value for money from my experience’
Greg's call on the east coast gas crisis and the demand for gold have been spot on. While there is no promising the next calls will be right, he is honest at when the trade doesn't go right and cuts losses. Him and his team review this and adjust the strategy accordingly for future trades. My friend asked me the other day about which service I'd use if I were to recommend one and I told him straight up that Crisis & Opportunity is the best value for money from my experience.
1971 — 14.65%
1972 — 43.14%
1973 — 66.79%
1974 — 72.59%
Then, the price corrected for two years, before picking up steam again...
1975 — -24.2%
1976 — -3.96%
1977 — 20.43%
1978 — 29.17%
1979 — 120.57%
1980 — 29.61%
It was an extraordinary bull market. It reflected a decades-long catch up after central banks (particularly the US) tried so hard to keep the gold price tied down.
As I’ve shown you, a portfolio of the right small miners during that time could have made you very wealthy.
Now…If we’re honest, you’d have to put the chances of an exact repeat of that time as slim.
Gold is clearly no longer pegged to the dollar.
Some hardcore gold bugs believe that a ‘gold reset’ will take place.
They see a shut down in the gold trading system, and when trading resumes it will be at $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce. While this sounds exciting, I view it as a very low probability event.
So what ARE some similarities to 1978/1979
and the gold market RIGHT NOW?
Deep division and political unrest in the United States is a massive one.
In 1979, right as gold started to fly, then US President Jimmy Carter talked about a ‘crisis of confidence’ in American government and the future of the American economy.
He eventually lost the 1980 election to Ronald Reagan.
Going into a huge American election year, there are eerie parallels.
You may well know what Reagan’s campaign slogan was in 1980 (if you’ve not heard this you’ll scarcely believe it)…
It was: MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN.
The same slogan Trump adopted — and is keeping, slightly modified — for this election to tap into that populist anxiety and uncertainty.
They were perfect conditions for gold then. And they are now.
Then there was general uncertainty on a geopolitical scale.
Have a think…
Who did America have a huge standoff with in 1979 and 1980…while gold was soaring?
According to Wikipedia, 52 American diplomats and citizens were held hostage for 444 days from 4 November, 1979 to 20 January, 1981. The Iran hostage crisis stands as the longest in recorded history.
Today, in 2019, not a day goes by without an escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. And credible mentions of a possible war in 2020.
So you see what I mean, right?
It’s unwise to put TOO much stock in these parallels.
Because you can pluck similarities between many periods if you try hard enough.
Still…you’d have to admit there are some resemblances.
Business Insider put it very well in July 2016:
‘So is it probable that gold will repeat the historic gains of the 1970s? No. Is it a legitimate possibility? Yes. Conditions are favourable for gold…and getting more favourable by the day.’
And PLEASE remember: there is a new factor in play here as well.
Franco-Nevada’s Pierre Lassonde reckons Peak Gold can’t help but have an impact.
He told German financial newspaper Finanz und Wirtschaft in October 2017:
‘If you look back to the 70s, 80s and 90s, in every one of those decades, the industry found at least one 50+ million ounce gold deposit, at least ten 30+ million ounce deposits and countless 5 to 10 million ounce deposits.
‘But if you look at the last 15 years, we found no 50 million ounce deposit, no 30 million ounce deposit and only very few 15 million ounce deposits.’
THAT’S the wildcard in this next boom, reader!
Unlike the 1970s, the world is running out of goldmines!
Superstar goldfields like South Africa’s Witwatersrand Basin, Nevada’s Carlin Trend and Australia’s Super Pit are entering their twilight stages.
And the numbers of SIGNIFICANT new large deposits being found are slumping to virtually zero.
Now let me bring this a bit closer to home (concentrate here because this is HUGE)…
A first-of-its-kind study conducted by MinEx Consulting released in 2017 showed a STARTLING fact about Australia in a Peak Gold world.
It predicts that by 2057, all but four of the 71 currently operating mines in Australia will be exhausted and most will shut down in the next couple of decades.
And, according to lawrieongold.com:
‘Any additional production will be dependent on new exploration success, which will become increasingly difficult if companies don’t invest in exploration and if the Australian government doesn’t relax rules in the mining space.
‘MinEx estimates that “for the Australian gold industry to maintain production at current levels in the longer term, it will either need to double the amount spent on exploration or double its discovery performance.”’
Let’s return to that very simple equation from earlier on…
PEAK GOLD +
NEW GOLD MANIA =
POTENTIAL 1970s-LIKE GAINS FROM COMPANIES IN THE EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT PHASE.
But now we get to the million-dollar question.
Let’s say you’re at least half sold. At least enough to take a speculative punt on the four juniors I’ve put buy recommendations on.
You think there’s at least the POTENTIAL for what we’re seeing right now to turn into a new gold mania.
And this time, PEAK GOLD may hold some sway, and put even more upward pressure on the gold price.
All that assumed…
WHICH COMPANIES could be most in line to see potential screamer gains?
Four Potential Gold Junior
‘Screamers’ to Buy Now
The Bull.com writes of the recent gold breakout:
‘This huge milestone changes everything for gold and its miners’ stocks, unleashing new-high psychology fueling self-feeding buying. With speculators not yet all-in and investors wildly underdeployed, gold has room to power much higher.’
As I’ve said, I find it quite remarkable that gold’s return has not filtered down to the small explorers (at least not at the time of writing).
But let’s be clear: that does not make every stock in the gold junior space a bargain.
Far from it.
Plenty of these stocks are nothing more than money sinks. These companies will not survive…even in a Peak Gold influenced bull market.
Bull markets bring out lots of promoters holding out the promise of big gold finds.
You’ll see these guys come out in force with empty promises in 2020, I expect.
While there are a lot of dodgy stocks in the sector that you must avoid, there are also some criminally undervalued operations.
That’s because capital is very wary of companies that still have the development path in front of them.
The Australian picked up on this recently:
‘The Quiet Achiever’
If I was to put a label on Greg's service, I would call him "The Quiet Achiever" because he offers a high quality service in a very humble and self-effacing manner, and he concentrates on well-structured arguments and logic, whilst putting aside any sense of personal biases for or against, preferring to let the facts speak for themselves.
Also, if Greg is unsure about an issue, he will state that. As a subscriber, I have the utmost confidence in his ability, methodology and integrity. In my opinion, any new subscriber would find much to like about Crisis & Opportunity, and history suggests that the service will continue to provide exceptional overall returns from winners and losers in the recommendations given.
‘Despite the Australian dollar gold price trading near record highs, Australia’s small and mid-sized goldminers are increasingly on the nose following a string of recent disappointments.
‘Miners Gascoyne Resources and Coolgardie Minerals have both fallen into administration this year, while former market darling Dacian Gold has seen its share price eviscerated after two big production downgrades in a matter of months.’
So, buyer beware. Even with a huge…potentially historic…bull market on the horizon, this is risky territory.
Fortunately I have nearly 20 years’ experience in this field. I think that gives me an advantage in knowing what to look for.
So what ARE we on the lookout for?
Simply: I believe many gold juniors are just not priced for success.
Usually, in the early stages of a bull market, speculative stocks already have a lot of hope priced in. That makes buying them particularly risky, because if something goes wrong — like a poor drilling result — then the downside can be big.
But now, because the market is so risk averse, it actually means there are plenty of potential bargains around.
This, despite the fact that the gold market is going CRAZY!
Until now that craziness has manifested in people buying shares in the big miners.
It’s my contention that’s going to shift further down the gold food chain.
With the US dollar gold price making a move above resistance, I think you’ll see global capital start to move into the smaller players.
It’s my goal to get you on board the few stocks that could potentially benefit from this move
Am I qualified to do that?
Well, that's something you'll have to decide for yourself. But here are some kind words from some of my readers...
I’m sure I’m one of many who enjoys reading Greg’s emails and I hope it continues to flourish. His advice is usually incisive but more importantly he goes to great lengths to justify his recommendations.
I like that you cover different underlying trends and base your picks on the fundamentals with upside opportunity if it plays out. Not a goldbug/techead/divi diver/potstocker but happy to cover each - normally out of favour stocks with solid financials, these will suit longer term investors who can wait for the trend to kick in again. Keep up the great work Greg it is appreciated.
Crisis & Opportunity is in my opinion a great advisory service. So far I have profited on every stock I had chosen from Greg's recommendations. I highly recommend.
I have been a subscriber to C&O for over a year and have found Greg's weekly and monthly updates to be first rate. Importantly they have also enabled me to profit. In particular the cool headed analysis of major market movements have been most appreciated.
Greg provides a unique investment service, combining good analysis of fundamentals as well as the charts in support of every recommendation, which brings a humility to the style that few in the industry demonstrate! C&O recommendations have made a substantial contribution to my portfolio returns and it's one of the few services I trust implicitly after many years of investing, to the point where if time poor I will invest first and read later.
Name withheld by request
The humility the last subscriber describes is essential if you want to be consistently successful over time.
Hubris is a PORTFOLIO KILLER.
And I'm certainly humble enough to say I could be completely wrong with this thesis.
It's happened before and will happen again.
But I've also put an extraordinary amount of due diligence into this theme.
I know gold. And I feel in my bones that it's time to make a bold move.
Are you game?
Then here’s the strategy…
In a bull market, investors place high earnings multiples on the leading stocks in the sector. Over time, this puts pressure on the larger companies to come up with growth options.
There are only a few ways for a big gold company to get even bigger — even in a gold bull market.
You either grow production organically.
Or you acquire it by buying smaller companies looking for gold or developing a resource.
Organic production is going to get harder and harder in a Peak Gold world.
You can’t just click your fingers and produce it.
That means acquisition-led growth is the only option for those under pressure to ‘do something’.
This is made easier by soaring share prices. High share prices give management and the board a cheap currency with which to acquire growth. And when a sector is hot, it’s easy to raise money.
This scenario is good for the target company. But not so good for the acquirer.
That’s because it represents a transfer of risk. The smaller, risky gold junior gets a takeover offer. It’s absorbed into the larger company. And if you’re already a shareholder in the smaller guy, you can potentially see massive price gains, and very quickly.
So THAT’S the strategy.
I want to give you a handful of potential takeover targets that could benefit from the resumption of the secular gold bull market.
To be clear, I’ve selected these stocks because they are all interesting in their own right.
Their success or otherwise doesn’t wholly depend on a takeover offer. But they are all well placed to receive one if the gold boom really picks up in the future.
We’re going to roll the dice on FOUR
Rather than roll the dice on what I think is THE best pick, I’d prefer you take a very small stake in a handful of what I believe to be potential big winners.
This doesn’t make this any less risky (again: this is for speculators only.)
But at least you’ll have that risk spread around a bit.
We’re talking about a highly speculative end of the market here. Spreading your bet on several stocks is a much better way to control your risk than betting on one.
I’ll be brutally honest:
I don’t expect all these picks to work out. Even if everything I’ve shown you in this white paper turns out to be 100% what actually happens.
Even if you can get just one right in a big way, one absolute screamer, it could more than make up for three or four minor losses.
'Not opinionated or
full of BS predictions.'
Not opinionated or full of BS predictions. Instead Greg gives both sides of the situation allowing me to make an independent and informed decision of which I can comfortably profit from. Both personally and from an investment point of view. Keep doing what you do so very well Greg.
I’ve been researching junior gold plays for most of this year. I eventually got down to a short list of around 15 stocks. I’ve recently settled on four potential screamers. (Plus an intriguing ‘bonus play’…which we’ll get to in a second.)
This is a gold mini-portfolio aimed to help you:
- Take advantage of the extreme risk aversion RIGHT NOW at the smaller end of the market;
- Take advantage of what I believe is the coming bull market in US dollar gold, which will spark a global rush of capital into the more speculative end.
- Own stakes in small companies that could potentially become very, very big companies (or get bought out) in a Peak Gold world.
Now all four of these are live, brand new recommendations.
I VERY rarely issue more than two buy alerts at once. But, given the pace that this story is moving, I published the first of a two-part, special double issue for readers of my newsletter, Crisis & Opportunity, in the final week of June.
These are my highest conviction junior plays on the coming gold blowout.
In deference to my paying readers, I’m not going to divulge their names, or too many identifiable details, in this public web page.
However…I’ve packaged the full research on each stock (backstory, name and ticker symbol, key risks and buy-up-to price) in a password-protected PDF report.
I’ll give you instructions on how to access it in a second. It contains everything you need to know on:
- POTENTIAL TAKEOVER TARGET #1: A risky, $48 million early-stager that’s ‘shadowing’ Newcrest in Queensland. Your first play, a very speculative one, has me intrigued…Queensland is one of those ‘lesser popular’ regions I mentioned where I believe attention will gravitate as the gold bull progresses. Newcrest — Australia’s largest gold miner — did some drilling there in 2018. The results are not yet public. But this early-stage explorer has started targeting the same area…
- POTENTIAL TAKEOVER TARGET #2: A ‘gold flipper’ scouring the Northern Territory for high grade deposits to ‘flip’. These little guys have a unique business model. What they do is look for gold, and, if successful, ‘flip’ the asset and hand over the development and production risk to a strategic partner. In addition, this company earns royalties from any subsequent production. It then uses the income stream from these royalties to fund further exploration investment. That’s all I’ll say here: except for that this tiny explorer is all over a historical, high-grade ore region. If AUD gold stays above $2,000…I think the big guys will start noticing this region too…
- POTENTIAL TAKEOVER TARGET #3: If the big guns move on these guys, watch out! This is an urgent one. Results from various drilling programs are due to roll in in the coming months. There is potentially lots of positive news flow to come as well. All of this company’s projects are in a highly prospective province in the Northern Territory. And these guys have an edge. They already have a number of Joint Venture agreements with some large and well known gold companies, as well as some promising ground that it retains a 100% stake in. If the big guns like Newmont start to prowl…and preliminary exploration delivers the goods…this $40 million company could find itself right in the takeover crosshairs. If its drilling programs come up with nothing…you’ll see that reflected in the share price to.
- POTENTIAL TAKEOVER TARGET #4: The most promising Aussie gold stock you’ve never heard of. Your next potential takeover target is very different to the first three stocks. For a start, it’s much larger, and is very close to churning out around 300,000 ounces of gold in its first year of production. It’s probably the most promising gold stock you’ve never heard of. That’s because it’s an Aussie company developing a fascinating gold project OUTSIDE of Australia. First production from the mine is expected in the second half of next year, so there is still another 12 months or so of the development phase to go. However, our play is fully funded to production. As I’ll show you, the potential cash generation of the operation in the first year alone is massive. Converted to Aussie dollars at an exchange rate of 70 US cents (which, obviously, fluctuates), it could be looking at free cash flow in AUD of $271 million in the first year. Yet the current market cap of this company is only $290 million! If these guys stay on track…gold prices stay strong…they’ll get noticed…
AGAIN, though: Regardless of what we’ve covered so far about this burgeoning boom, this is risky stuff and, as I’ve mentioned, there are absolutely no guarantees that any of this will happen.
So don’t put a cent into these four plays you’re not prepared to lose.
When buying into a gold explorer, you’re essentially buying the skill (or lack thereof) of the management team and their geologists. Good teams find gold where others missed it. Bad teams just burn through cash, with nothing to show for it.
Bad teams in charge of really small explorers can screw things up, even when the market is moving in their favour.
I believe all four of these companies have the right exploration ground, and have enough potential, to help them take MAXIMUM advantage of the next gold up-cycle.
You’ll get everything you need to know in my just published report: ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’.
I’ve included a bonus recommendation for you.
I’ve not included it above because, on balance, it’s unlikely to be a takeover target.
But, in my view, you should own it nonetheless…
- BONUS RECOMMENDATION: A big, established producer flying well under the radar.
This is marginally less speculative than your four takeover ‘screamer’ plays. For one, because it’s over fifteen times bigger. And they’re much further along the production track. In FY20, these guys expect to produce 270k–300k ounces of gold. Assuming a gold price of $2,000 an ounce, they can potentially generate around $125 million in after tax free cash flow next year. They’ve got some quality projects scattered round Western Australia. If the AUD gold price remains strong, this investment is set to reap rewards in a period of all-time high gold prices. As a result, this producer could start to generate significant free cashflow for shareholders. Less a potential ‘screamer’, more a classic lock-away-and-forget gold producer play.
My write-up on these guys will be included as a bonus recommendation in ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’.
I’ll present you with download instructions shortly.
All I ask in return is that you take a 30-day test drive of my investment service, Crisis & Opportunity.
You can give it a no-obligation run around the block for a month.
If during those 30 days if you don’t wish to continue — for any reason at all — just contact my customer service team and you’ll receive a full refund.
And you can keep ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’.
Even if you refund.
All you need to do is hit the giant SUBSCRIBE NOW link at the end of this white paper.
I’ll put it to you straight.
There are times during this raging, near-10-year bull market where I’ve felt like Crisis & Opportunity, one of the more conservative of Port Phillip Publishing’s newsletters, has been out of step.
I don’t feel that now!
Cometh the hour, cometh the newsletter.
Everything I’ve been tracking and preparing my readers for over the last five years looks to be unfolding RIGHT NOW.
‘Interesting, Enlightening, Entertaining, Informative, Sensible, Logical, Trustworthy.’
Greg has introduced me to stocks I would have never considered, at least one near doubling within a short timeframe. His advice has applied to both large and small caps. To me, his recommendations have made sense and I have followed a number of recommendations with confidence and trust. Single word descriptors would include: Interesting, Enlightening, Entertaining, Informative, Sensible, Logical, Trustworthy. I have especially appreciated the follow up analysis and advice if the stock or market trend changes. I give my thanks to C&O (Greg) I will be renewing.
The analysis is all around us. It’s stacking up by the day.
Crisis & Opportunity doesn’t just show you ways to bunker down for the next crisis. We dig into the opportunities as well. ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’ is, hopefully, just the first of those.
You should take a dip into my back-catalogue — at no obligation to subscribe — and see exactly where I have my readers positioned right now…
An anchor in an investment climate where
crises and opportunities are EVERYWHERE
Crisis & Opportunity is a newsletter for a very unique and challenging time in the financial markets.
Put simply, the world has changed and continues to do so in a rapid and complex manner. In 2008, central banks and governments bailed out the system immediately following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
But instead of retreating after the worst had passed, and letting the market sort things out, they became increasingly involved.
Today, central bank and government involvement in markets is unprecedented.
But, as you’ve seen, it appears we may be reaching the endgame in this strange experiment.
Gold is reasserting itself. War hawks are shouting again. Trade and currency wars are raging. Debt levels are astronomical. Europe is on the brink. And, in the United States, another nasty election looms.
Crisis & Opportunity attempts to help you chart a smart path through all of these uncertainties.
You can take a ‘sneak peek’ of all the back issues and see for yourself.
Study my latest four gold junior buys carefully.
Pay particular attention to ALL the current buy recommendations. Assess how I’ve set my readers up for what I believe is going to come for the rest of this year and into next
Then make your own mind up.
If you’d like to stick around, great!
If not, simply contact us within 30 days for a full an unconditional refund.
If you’re familiar with our work at Port Phillip Publishing, you’ll know that 30-day trial period is standard practice.
This is rare in the financial advisory business.
But it’s important.
I am a firm believer that no one else is responsible for your wins and losses but you. I can use my knowledge and experience to help you along the way. But, ultimately, you are the one charting your course.
If what I’m doing doesn’t align with your own goals, you should let me know inside the trial time and we’ll refund every cent of the (very small) subscription fee.
No hard feelings.
And, as I say, you can keep ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’ and all the research therein with my compliments.
So how much IS Crisis & Opportunity?
Far too cheap, I’m sorry to say
Price-wise, Crisis & Opportunity remains what we call an ‘entry level’ newsletter here at Port Phillip Publishing.
By that I mean it’s just $149 per year.
Not ONLY that, we discount your first year by 67%.
Meaning you’ll pay just $49 for the first 12 months.
Just $49 for all my research, my latest five ‘Peak Gold’ plays, plus complete, unrestricted access to all the live buys on the Crisis & Opportunity recommendation list.
PLUS you get to ask for that $49 back within 30 days if you so wish?
That, to my mind, is far too little money for what you’re getting in return.
Of course, it's easy (and perhaps a bit cheeky) for an editor to claim that about his own work.
So I'll throw again to my readers for a bit of support...
Hello Greg, I get the feeling that you newsletter may not be viable and that concerns me. I am an Alliance member so I’m not sure what your subscription fee is, but $50 sounds far too cheap. With the wealth of information available through the Alliance membership your newsletter is one I especially enjoy and would not like to see it go. I seem to remember your original newsletter was in the order of $1000+, so $50 surprises me and would have thought at least $500 would still be cheap.
I personally believe that any subscription you're writing for is worth way more than $50 a year. I’m paying that per month on some in The US/ Canada…You need to up-sell yourself as you deserve the recognition for a great job well done 100% of the time. Thank you Greg for your excellent contribution to my family’s wealth.
Very good research. One can see a lot of hard work put in. The service should charge around $400-$500 a year or say it worth at least that amount. Chin
For investment advice that costs around $50 per year (yep only $1 per week in round numbers) it's a no brainer. I don't invest on every recommendation but the more recent one I did buy has returned over 60% which has paid for many years subscriptions and more - and whilst that may sound like a car sales type encouragement, for a mere $50 there's only one way you'll find out. The analysis and presentation is very clear, well researched and the vast majority of recommendations are very fruitful... Just do it!
At just on $50 per annual subscription C & O represents phenomenal value. I've got only a handful of stocks, one of which is in Greg's stable and doing very, very well. Good job Greg!
Hi Greg, C&O has been the best $50 subscription I've tried, and I've tried a few. Keep up the good work.
I find this service informative, well reasoned and fortified - and not over hyped. Fifty bucks is a bargain.
The Crisis & Opportunity service is by far the best value for money. As a low cost service I am amazed at the good investing results and the level headed advice in the newsletters. When my son started thinking about investing some of his money in the stock market, I pointed him to your Crisis & Opportunity newsletter. Keep up the good work Greg.
So much so you might be thinking…if it’s THAT cheap, and if I actually have paid readers asking me why it's so cheap, what’s the catch?
There isn't one.
The newsletter was priced at that point many years ago, when we changed it from its previous incarnation, Sound Money, Sound Investments. When it was a very different newsletter, based pretty much solely on value investing.
And, I believe, Crisis & Opportunity is about to have its day in the sun.
The timing is just perfect.
I’ve been in a battle for a while now with the publishing and accounts departments here to have this priced at least five times higher, to what we call a ‘back-end’ service.
That’s a service that’s worth several thousand dollars a year, rather than $49.
Based on reader feedback, I reckon you could pay $2,500-plus for everything you’ll be getting today, and it would still be a bargain.
For years I've not cared that much. But now I'm not so sure...I'm even wondering if I'm deterring some people from subscribing BECAUSE it's so cheap! In any case, this may well be the last time you get to try Crisis & Opportunityat this low price point again.
If you want to get in the door while
we’re still a ‘front end’ $49 service,
we need to hear from you now
Here’s the deal.
Click the SUBSCRIBE NOW link at the end of this white paper and you’ll be directed to a secure order form.
Choose the discounted $49 First Year Option.
Have a really good examination of your gold stock report and everything else.
Refund if you wish within 30 days.
If you stay on for the duration, you’ll be automatically renewed at the standard $149 every 12 months thereafter, unless we hear from you otherwise.
Again: even that $149 seems like WAY too much of a bargain to me. It annoys me to write it!
But, for now, that’s how the deal stands.
So you’d do well to accept it today by clicking the big SUBSCRIBE NOW link below.
Do that and there’s another extremely valuable resource I want to give you today, simply for trialling my newsletter…
How to Pick Winning Gold Stocks
My four stock report may well be enough for you.
But given the potential scope — and duration — of this next gold bull, you may well wish to do some ‘solo hunting’.
You should think long and hard before you invest.
This is tough stuff, even for professionals like myself.
Being an Australian-based gold investor, too, is tricky.
First, because you have to take two gold prices into account — the Aussie dollar and US dollar gold price. (I’ll explain why that’s tricky in this report).
Second, because, compared to many markets, you’re spoilt for choice.
There’s a lot of gold in them there hills!
But there’s a lot of rubbish out there too.
I’ve written this report to give you some valuable tips discerning the nuggets from the rubble.
There are about a thousand things that can go wrong in the process of finding gold, extracting it, and processing it for final sale. Even in a bull market.
How do you find the winners without stepping on some landmines? Which small explorers are best-positioned in a Peak Gold world? Which ones have the potential to get buyout attention from the majors? And even if you do find a promising company, how do you know you’re not paying too much for it?
That’s what this report seeks to help you with. I don’t profess to know all the answers. But I do have some tips to help you improve your odds of success. Including:
- An easy-to-read technical chart pattern that puts the odds on your side that a gold stock is about to potentially break out
- The three types of gold juniors you should be focusing on for the rest of 2019 and in 2020
- How to measure the success and efficiency of an explorer’s drilling program…
- Gold ‘grades’ explained…
- What to look for in a good developer: Once a company drills enough to declare a maiden resource, it usually moves towards the mine development stage. But not all developers are equal…
- How to read a ‘feasibility study’ to see if a company is likely (or not) to progress to commercial production…
- Six crucial boxes to tick before you buy in at the production stage (Cheap will NOT always be better in this next bull market).
The main takeaway from this report is that you need to consider very hard WHAT STAGE you’re investing in.
Explorers are very speculative. You don’t know whether the company will find gold, or find enough for a mineable resource
Developers have moved along the risk curve a little, but plenty of potential issues still remain.
Producers have de-risked the exploration and development stages, but their challenge is to demonstrate steady (and hopefully growing) production along with replacement (and hopefully growing) of reserves.
Your aim should be to have a blend of companies in all three different stages of their life cycle. This report helps you do that.
But obviously, the Holy Grail is to find the explorer that goes on to find lots of gold, develop a mine, and turn into a high free cash flow generating producer. Hopefully this report may generate one or two of those for you in this next gold upstage!
Gold is moving: now you need to
decide what moves YOU make…
Thanks for staying with me.
To summarise, here’s what I’m offering now:
- ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’
- BONUS REPORT: ‘How to Pick Winning Gold Stocks’
- A no-obligation 30-day trial of Crisis & Opportunity
You’ll be granted full, password-protected access as soon as your trial begins.
Unless something very extreme happens in the markets, you will receive at least one new investment opportunity each month.
Occasionally, when dealing with an especially time-sensitive situation like the gold breakout, I will release multiple recommendations simultaneously.
This will be rare.
Remember, you have a full 30 days to test-drive Crisis & Opportunity.
Study my analysis, ‘paper trade’ my recommendations, download and flip through my special reports…
And if at any time within your first 30 days you are not 100% over the moon with my service, for whatever reason, simply contact my customer service team for a full and courteous refund.
If you’re not happy, then I won’t be either. And you’ll have a full 30 days to try out the service.
I’ll finish with this.
If I’m right about what’s going to happen with gold — and there are no guarantees — opportunities like this are few and far between in the markets.
1970s…then the 1990s…and, potentially, the early 2020s.
You might have to wait 20 or 30 years for a gold set up like this again!
That equation, one more time:
PEAK GOLD +
NEW GOLD MANIA =
POTENTIAL 1970s-LIKE GAINS FROM COMPANIES IN THE EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT PHASE.
If that thesis turns out to be correct, you should make your move now.
To do so, click the SUBSCRIBE NOW link below.
Editor, Crisis & Opportunity
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Peak Gold?
Peak Gold is not a metaphor. Technically speaking, it’s a specific time. A date when where the maximum amount of gold we take out of the earth is reached. After that, gold production declines. Eventually to zero. That’s the rigid definition. Sunshine Profits defines Peak Gold as ‘the point of greatest development, value and intensity’.
As you’ve seen in this white paper, there are strong arguments being made by prominent industry experts that we may be nearing, or have already reached, Peak Gold.
Billionaire founder of Franco-Nevada Gold, Pierre Lassonde, reckons ‘Peak Gold’ is here.
CEO and Chairman of Seabridge Gold Rudy Fronk has gone on record saying ‘peak gold is the new reality…’
Even Kevin Dushnisky, President of mining giant Barrick Gold, reckons: 'Falling grades and production levels, [as well as] a lack of new discoveries’, are what’s going to drive the next gold bull market
In the interests of objectivity, I’ve shown you arguments against this thesis as well.
The point is: if I’m right, we’re entering a gold bull market regardless of whether we’re at Peak Gold or not. But if the analysis I’ve shown you for Peak Gold holds up…this could be the biggest bullion price run you’ve seen in your lifetime.
What do I get?
First of all, you will get a 12-month subscription to my investment advisory, Crisis & Opportunity.
This will cost you just $49 today.
Plus, by signing up today you’ll get immediate access to
- ‘Four Potential Gold Junior ‘Screamers’ to Buy Now’
- BONUS REPORT: ‘How to Pick Winning Gold Stocks’
- A no-obligation 30-day trial of Crisis & Op
As an exclusive member of Crisis & Opportunity, you will also receive access to my complete stock buy-list, complete archive and special investor reports section.
Plus, you'll receive every weekly market update, news, analysis and report I publish for the next 12 months.
Are all those testimonials real?
I know, they're pretty good right?
To be honest I never check our testimonial file (which is maintained by our customer services department). In preparing this paper I was humbled and flattered by the unbelievably kind words.
Yes, every one is genuine. Each subscriber has granted permission to use. And they're all kept on a verified master file here at Port Phillip Publishing.
This is going to sound like bragging but we couldn't even fit half of them in today.
Here's a few more final ones though...
A great service with amazing and genuine insight into the current state of the economy and the direction Greg feels that technical indicators are pointing towards in the future. Definitely a safe bet for the price.
Dear Greg, I have been using C&O as my primary advisory service for some time now. I am not affluent so I can’t afford the premium services. I find your service to be well researched and pertinent to the market. Thank you for your work.
All I ask from a service provider is a genuine effort and a fair chance to improve myself and I would like to thank you for that opportunity. I consider your service very good value and would recommend it to anyone who is looking for those points. Thank you for the chance to improve financial life.
Greg, I am an alliance member, and due to the numerous subscriptions available to me, I've had to pick and choose which services to read - Crisis & Opportunity is the only 'must read' for me every month. Your combination of fundamental and technical analysis has consistently performed, and it is the best investing strategy in my opinion.
I have a few of the Port Phillip newsletters however the best one by far for me has been Crisis & Opportunity. I have no hesitation in recommending this publication.
If you buy the daily newspaper you get yesterday’s news. I enjoy Crisis & Opportunity as a future outlook… Love it!
I am of the view that this service is extremely valuable as the recommendations are well thought through with all the positives and negatives fully explained so that the subscriber can make an informed decision whether to invest or not.
I’m a relative newbie to Greg Carnarvon C&O service. I appreciate Gregs’ honest, no BS approach to investing and to date I have gained good value from his newsletter, stock tips and market commentary.
Priceless data for the time it takes to read your reports. I couldn't invest my time as wisely digging thru the "minefield" of pros & cons for each recommendation. Keep up the great work, I'll keep profiting & reading it.
How much could I make if your analysis is correct?
Potentially, a lot. I’ve shown you how high previous gold bulls propelled certain mining juniors in the late 1970s, and in the 1990s.
You could lose money too, though.
Keep in mind that nothing is certain here. Not my due diligence on each stock. Not even my outlook on the whole for the goal market. I’m making educated guesses, based on experience. But these guesses could be wrong. Some of these stocks may not move as I expect. They might turn out to be duds. In fact, I expect to get some bruises as we ride this bull market.
Some stocks will be sold for a loss, and we’ll add new potential candidates. So while this is an exciting time to be investing in lesser-known gold stocks, I want you to understand the risks. Do not go all in!
Please also note that any stock recommendations tied to my service are general advice. You must consider your own personal circumstances when investing.
If you’re unsure, I recommend you seek independent advice from a certified financial advisor.
Ultimately, it’s up to you to make the final call. I can’t do that for you.